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🏆Mally Parlay💰

@MallyParlay48 followersfirst pick 21 Augusually posts 9 h before start

Moneyline and alternate line expert. / Sports enthusiast and parlay specialist. 👇 Discord 👇

BaseballNFL & NCAAFTennisFootballBasketball
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Tipster index45.8#476 on the leaderboardup 10 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
52.7%
expected 55.3%
Edge
−2.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 45.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
130
68-61-1
ROI
−7.8%
on 90 picks with odds · max drawdown −17.22 u
Average odds
1.74
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W7, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10-5020 Aug5 Sept20 Sept6 Oct22 Oct

By sport

Baseball24-28 · 52 graded
−4.9
46%
NFL & NCAAF21-18-1 · 40 graded
−8.1
54%
Tennis7-10 · 17 graded
−5.3
41%
Football8-3 · 11 graded
+6.9
73%
Basketball8-2 · 10 graded
+25.1
80%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result47-37 · 84 graded
−1.6
56%
Handicap9-13-1 · 23 graded
−16.6
41%
Team totals9-2 · 11 graded
+13.4
82%
Parlays0-7 · 7 graded
−12.9
0%
Totals3-2 · 5 graded
+22.5
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite30-20 · 50 graded
−9.8
60%
Even37-28-1 · 66 graded
+5.8
57%
Underdog1-6 · 7 graded
−18.1
14%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5013-7 · 20 graded
−15.0%
65%
1.50…1.8922-16 · 38 graded
−2.8%
58%
1.90…2.2914-8-1 · 23 graded
+26.0%
64%
2.30…3.490-4 · 4 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +10.8 pp
    12-6 · 67%
    ROI +17.9%
  • September 2026
    −11.5 pp
    26-38-1 · 41%
    ROI −27.9%
  • October 2026
    +4.5 pp
    30-17 · 64%
    ROI +11.5%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:36 · 13 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:36 · 13 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:36 · 13 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors −9.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:29 · 13 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.57 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:29 · 13 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:29 · 13 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +8.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:29 · 13 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:29 · 13 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:29 · 14 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:29 · 14 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Over 231.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 03:15 · 15 h before start
odds 3.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Ligue 1·
Lyon
2:1
Nice
Nice to win
Open on Xexpected 28% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:43 · 15 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:43 · 3 days before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.28 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:43 · 4 days before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.02 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:34 · 35 min before start
odds 2.16Won
ATP Challenger · Jinan, China·
Liam Draxl
2:0
James Duckworth
Liam Draxl to win@2.16
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.16 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:34 · 3 h before start
odds 2.16Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Jasmine Paolini
2:0
Nikola Bartunkova
Jasmine Paolini to win@2.16
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.16 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:34 · 5 h before start
odds 2.25Void
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Casper Ruud
void
Felix Auger Aliassime
Casper Ruud to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:34 · 6 h before start
odds 1.63Lost
WTA Challenger · Mallorca·
Marina Bassols Ribera
1:2
Francesca Curmi
Marina Bassols Ribera to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:26 · 2 h before start
odds 1.51Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Botic van de Zandschulp
1:2
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar to win@1.51
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds+0.52 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:26 · 9 h before start
odds 1.44Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Tommy Paul
2:0
Zizou Bergs
Tommy Paul to win@1.44
Open on Xexpected 66% from odds+0.44 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:26 · 5 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Janice Tjen
2:0
Daria Snigur
Daria Snigur to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 00:22 · 4 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
6:17
TCU Horned Frogs
Baylor Bears to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 00:22 · 4 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky Wildcats +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 00:22 · 4 days before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
BYU Cougars +10.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 00:22 · 4 days before start
odds 1.18DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns to win
Open on Xexpected 81% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 00:22 · 4 days before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
SMU Mustangs
23:13
Virginia Cavaliers
SMU Mustangs to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 00:22 · 4 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Missouri Tigers +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 00:22 · 4 days before start
odds 1.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line−1.00 u