Elite Sports Beat

@EliteSportsBeat34 followersfirst pick 19 Septusually posts 7 h before start

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockey

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Tipster index58.6#74 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Hit rate

54.0%

expected 47.1%

Edge

+6.9 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 42.5%, the edge is within noise

Graded

27-23

ROI

posts no odds

Average odds

singles with odds

Form

streak L5 · best W6, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball15-10 · 25 graded

+14.6

60%

NFL & NCAAF8-9 · 17 graded

−3.3

47%

Hockey4-4 · 8 graded

+4.6

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals17-13 · 30 graded

+8.9

57%

Match result8-6 · 14 graded

+3.4

57%

Parlays2-4 · 6 graded

+5.5

33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded

+3.1

67%

Even19-17 · 36 graded

+1.9

53%

Underdog4-1 · 5 graded

+46.6

80%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks

September 2026
+19.5 pp
21-11 · 66%
October 2026
−15.4 pp
6-12 · 33%

By league

MLB · USA15-1060%+14.6
NCAAF6-460%+10.1
NHL4-450%+4.6
NFL2-529%−22.6

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:29 · 2 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 17:00

Washington Commanders

27:27

New York Giants

Under 41.5

Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:29 · 5 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 20:25

Arizona Cardinals

21:45

Detroit Lions

Under 54.5

Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:45 · 1 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 16:00

West Virginia Mountaineers

31:52

Arizona Wildcats

Under 60.5

Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:45 · 1 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 16:00

Nebraska Cornhuskers

17:20

Indiana Hoosiers

Under 48.5

Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:45 · 2 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 16:30

Northwestern Wildcats

45:14

Ball State Cardinals

Under 56.5

Same-game combo · 2posted 10 Oct, 14:45 · 8 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·10 Oct, 23:00

Buffalo Sabres

1:4

Utah Mammoth

Under 5.5✓

NHL · NHL: Regular season·10 Oct, 23:00

Buffalo Sabres

1:4

Utah Mammoth

Buffalo Sabres to win✕

Same-game combo · 2posted 9 Oct, 23:08 · 2 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 01:00

Washington Huskies

24:41

Iowa Hawkeyes

Under 41.5✕

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 01:00

Washington Huskies

24:41

Iowa Hawkeyes

Washington Huskies to win✕

Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:08 · 2 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 01:00

San Jose State Spartans

13:16

Wyoming Cowboys

Under 42.5

Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:08 · 3 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 02:15

BYU Cougars

24:10

Iowa State Cyclones

Under 46.5

Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:50 · 10 h before start

Lost

MLB · post-season·9 Oct, 00:00

Chicago White Sox

5:9

Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox to win

Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:50 · 9 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·8 Oct, 23:00

Boston Bruins

6:1

Utah Mammoth

Boston Bruins to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:26 · 4 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Buffalo Bills

26:29

New England Patriots

Under 49.5

Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:26 · 7 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 20:05

Minnesota Vikings

15:10

Miami Dolphins

Under 38.5

Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:26 · 11 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·5 Oct, 00:20

Carolina Panthers

32:26

Detroit Lions

Under 51.5

Same-game combo · 2posted 1 Oct, 14:14 · 10 h before start

Lost

MLB · post-season·2 Oct, 00:00

Atlanta Braves

6:2

Philadelphia Phillies

Under 7.5✕

MLB · post-season·2 Oct, 00:00

Atlanta Braves

6:2

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves to win✓

Singleposted 1 Oct, 14:14 · 10 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·2 Oct, 00:00

Nashville Predators

1:3

Minnesota Wild

Under 5.5

Singleposted 1 Oct, 14:14 · 11 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·2 Oct, 01:00

Calgary Flames

1:6

Seattle Kraken

Calgary Flames to win

Singleposted 1 Oct, 14:14 · 12 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·2 Oct, 02:00

Vancouver Canucks

7:9

Edmonton Oilers

Under 6.25

Singleposted 29 Sept, 13:53 · 7 h before start

Lost

MLB · post-season·29 Sept, 21:00

Houston Astros

3:6

Chicago White Sox

Houston Astros to win

Singleposted 29 Sept, 13:53 · 7 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·29 Sept, 21:00

Carolina Hurricanes

0:1

Florida Panthers

Under 5.5

Singleposted 29 Sept, 13:53 · 10 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·30 Sept, 00:00

Boston Bruins

3:0

New York Rangers

Boston Bruins to win

Singleposted 29 Sept, 13:53 · 12 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·30 Sept, 02:00

Edmonton Oilers

5:6

Vancouver Canucks

Under 6.25

Same-game combo · 2posted 27 Sept, 14:26 · 3 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·27 Sept, 17:00

Indianapolis Colts

19:17

Houston Texans

Under 42.5✓

NFL · Regular Season·27 Sept, 17:00

Indianapolis Colts

19:17

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts to win✓

Singleposted 27 Sept, 14:26 · 3 h before start

Void

MLB·27 Sept, 17:05

New York Yankees

void

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees to win

Singleposted 27 Sept, 14:26 · 4 h before start

Won

MLB·27 Sept, 18:30

Philadelphia Phillies

7:3

Tampa Bay Rays

Philadelphia Phillies to win

Singleposted 27 Sept, 14:26 · 5 h before start

Won

MLB·27 Sept, 19:10

Kansas City Royals

3:2

Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals to win

Singleposted 27 Sept, 14:26 · 5 h before start

Won

MLB·27 Sept, 19:10

Chicago White Sox

4:2

Colorado Rockies

Under 8.5

Singleposted 27 Sept, 14:26 · 5 h before start

Lost

MLB·27 Sept, 19:10

Detroit Tigers

2:4

Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers to win

Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:14 · 2 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 16:00

Kent State Golden Flashes

26:13

Ball State Cardinals

Under 50.5

Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:14 · 2 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 16:00

Tennessee Volunteers

17:20

Texas Longhorns

Under 54.5