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@Betsxikmc5 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 3 h before start

I just like to bet on sports but l really love the game they call Basketball 🏀 Specialize in NBA & WNBA props $5 Dollar Capper 🙏 RIP pops

BaseballHockeyNFL & NCAAFTennisFootballBasketball
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Tipster index45.6#480 on the leaderboarddown 43 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
48.4%
expected 51.1%
Edge
−2.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 41.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
123
59-63-1
ROI
−15.7%
on 106 picks with odds · max drawdown −18.51 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W10, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-2021 Aug20 Aug9 Sept28 Sept18 Oct

By sport

Baseball48-41-1 · 90 graded
+1.1
54%
Hockey3-12 · 15 graded
−25.9
20%
NFL & NCAAF2-5 · 7 graded
−13.8
29%
Tennis3-2 · 5 graded
+10.2
60%
Football3-2 · 5 graded
+11.2
60%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−53.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result41-38 · 79 graded
−1.1
52%
Totals9-15 · 24 graded
−15.4
38%
Handicap3-5-1 · 9 graded
−14.4
38%
Parlays4-5 · 9 graded
+14.8
44%
Team totals2-0 · 2 graded
+51.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite15-8 · 23 graded
+0.3
65%
Even38-46-1 · 85 graded
−5.5
45%
Underdog2-4 · 6 graded
−2.8
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
1.50…1.8926-29 · 55 graded
−19.6%
47%
1.90…2.2914-20 · 34 graded
−16.9%
41%
2.30…3.495-5 · 10 graded
+21.3%
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +3.1 pp
    54-44-1 · 55%
    ROI −5.0%
  • October 2026
    −26.5 pp
    5-19 · 21%
    ROI −54.4%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:17 · 43 min before start
odds 2.00Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:17 · 4 days before start
odds 1.95Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:17 · 13 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:16 · 1 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 14 Oct, 23:16 · 14 min before start
odds 3.33Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win✕
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:10 · 49 min before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:10 · 19 min before start
odds 2.05Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:10 · 1 h before start
odds 2.20Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Dallas Stars to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.20 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:59 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Over 6@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:50 · 4 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Under 53.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:29 · 9 h before start
odds 1.78Lost
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Leylah Fernandez
1:2
Jelena Ostapenko
Leylah Fernandez to win@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 1 h before start
odds 1.73Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State Owls to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:53 · 7 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:33 · 6 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
3:2
Vancouver Canucks
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 20:56 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams −3.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 19:39 · 2 days before start
odds 3.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLS·
Charlotte
3:2
FC Dallas
FC Dallas to win
Open on Xexpected 31% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 9 h before start
odds 2.30Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Tampa Bay Lightning
3:2
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 9 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
0:4
Dallas Stars
Buffalo Sabres to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 9 h before start
odds 2.50Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
2:5
Nashville Predators
Nashville Predators to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 9 h before start
odds 1.79Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:1
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 9 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:1
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 10 h before start
odds 2.50Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
4:1
Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago Blackhawks to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 10 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
2:3
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:54 · 12 h before start
odds 2.42Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
4:3
Toronto Maple Leafs
penalties
Toronto Maple Leafs to win@2.42
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Aug, 21:42 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00Won
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
9:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Seattle Mariners to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Aug, 21:42 · 4 h before start
odds 1.81Won
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
5:0
Cincinnati Reds
Under 7.5@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 20 Aug, 16:56 · 14 min before start
odds 2.10Won
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
5:2
San Francisco Giants
Cleveland Guardians −1.5@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 20 Aug, 16:56 · 7 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
MLB·
Texas Rangers
2:0
Washington Nationals
Over 7.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 20 Aug, 16:56 · 14 min before start
odds 3.00Lost
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:5
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5@1.67✓
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:5
Toronto Blue Jays
Over 8.5@1.80✕
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Aug, 16:53 · 1 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
6:2
Athletics
Athletics to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u