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MR DOGO PARLAY

@MRDOGOPARLAY39 followersfirst pick 3 Septusually posts 10 h before start

Sports Betting Analyst | NYC Vibes🗽 | Picks • Stats • Smart Breakdowns | NFL • NBA • MLB & Beyond Research First. Hype Never. https://t.co/1OlcSJuARh

NFL & NCAAFTennisBaseballFootballHockeyBasketball
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Tipster index55.0#180 on the leaderboarddown 62 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
62.4%
expected 59.8%
Edge
+2.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 58.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
420
261-157-2
ROI
−3.0%
on 268 picks with odds · max drawdown −17.59 u
Average odds
1.66
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W14, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

0510152 Sept15 Sept27 Sept9 Oct22 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF69-42-2 · 113 graded
+3.2
62%
Tennis63-43 · 106 graded
−2.5
59%
Baseball48-30 · 78 graded
+5.5
62%
Football41-19 · 60 graded
+5.9
68%
Hockey26-11 · 37 graded
+9.1
70%
Basketball14-12 · 26 graded
−3.6
54%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result189-108-1 · 298 graded
+1.7
64%
Handicap62-31-1 · 94 graded
+8.5
67%
Totals7-5 · 12 graded
+3.5
58%
Parlays0-10 · 10 graded
−11.2
0%
Double chance2-1 · 3 graded
−3.4
67%
Both teams to score0-2 · 2 graded
−67.8
0%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+42.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite155-55 · 210 graded
+3.1
74%
Even103-80-1 · 184 graded
+4.3
56%
Underdog3-12-1 · 16 graded
−13.9
20%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5078-23 · 101 graded
+1.9%
77%
1.50…1.8968-56 · 124 graded
−7.5%
55%
1.90…2.2915-12-1 · 28 graded
+13.4%
56%
2.30…3.494-7-1 · 12 graded
−11.6%
36%
3.50+0-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +6.3 pp
    120-62-1 · 66%
    ROI −1.6%
  • October 2026
    −0.1 pp
    141-95-1 · 60%
    ROI −4.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:33 · 3 h before start
odds 1.69Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Alexandra Eala
0:2
Diana Shnaider
Diana Shnaider to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 4 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Under 239.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 4 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.57 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 4 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Under 229.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 4 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 4 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 5 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Over 229.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 5 h before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
128:110
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets to win
Open on Xexpected 78% from the closing line+0.23 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:22 · 7 h before start
odds 1.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.43 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 07:31 · 4 h before start
odds 1.59Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Mariano Navone
0:2
Tallon Griekspoor
Tallon Griekspoor to win@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.59 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 3 h before start
odds 1.93DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Duke Blue Devils
20:24
North Carolina Tar Heels
Duke Blue Devils −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 21 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Missouri Tigers +5.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish −10.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 3 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Air Force Falcons
41:31
UNLV Rebels
Air Force Falcons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 24 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 28 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:40 · 32 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys +1.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Parlay · 10posted 17 Oct, 16:38 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs −19.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
21:18
Penn State Nittany Lions
Michigan Wolverines −6.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
53:25
Arizona State Sun Devils
Texas Tech Red Raiders −15.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Vanderbilt Commodores
21:31
Arkansas Razorbacks
Vanderbilt Commodores −5.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners −6.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
BYU Cougars +10.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans −4.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
UCLA Bruins −2.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
24:27
Utah Utes
Utah Utes −15.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
17:14
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks −6.5✕
Open on Xexpected 1% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 1.16DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Pre-season·
San Antonio Spurs
126:97
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs to win
Open on Xexpected 82% from the closing line+0.16 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Dallas Mavericks
111:135
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +6.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 2.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Chicago Bulls
133:116
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 33% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
New Orleans Pelicans
107:106
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Memphis Grizzlies
117:98
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 6 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Phoenix Suns
116:119
Utah Jazz
Phoenix Suns +4.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 6 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Golden State Warriors
128:118
Portland Trail Blazers
Golden State Warriors +5.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 6 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
LA Lakers
106:121
Denver Nuggets
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:18 · 3 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u