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Jay Smoove 🚨‼️

@SharpSmoove1.7K followersfirst pick 9 Septusually posts 12 h before start

Just a regular guy trying to turn a little action into a big win. Catch me on YouTube on Jay Smoove Knows 🏀 🏈 ⚾️

NFL & NCAAFBasketballBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index54.9#181 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
60.0%
expected 50.3%
Edge
+9.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 35.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
10
6-4
ROI
+6.9%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.14 u
Average odds
1.81
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W3, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1-0.500.510 Sept20 Sept30 Sept10 Oct21 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
−2.0
50%
Basketball2-0 · 2 graded
+42.6
100%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
+12.0
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap5-1 · 6 graded
+31.9
83%
Match result1-2 · 3 graded
−23.2
33%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−25.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−15.6
50%
Even5-2 · 7 graded
+21.9
71%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.90…2.291-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −65.9 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • October 2026
    +18.1 pp
    6-3 · 67%
    ROI +24.7%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:16 · 18 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 01:16 · 24 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 00:01 · 18 min before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:55 · 12 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
33:30
Delaware Blue Hens
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +1.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 12 Oct, 21:34 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:7
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.59✕
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:7
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays −1.5✕
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 12 Oct, 12:04 · 12 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams −3.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 17:22 · 7 h before start
odds 1.87Won
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
5:9
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 10:50 · 13 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
22:3
New Mexico State Aggies
FIU Golden Panthers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 5 Oct, 14:25 · 10 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 01:29 · 47 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u