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Joe Garcia | Betcast

@JoeFromBetcast101 followersfirst pick 11 Septusually posts 4 h before start

Building @betcastai. Tracking what sports podcasts pick and how those picks perform. Host of The Betcast Ledger. Sports, research, and building in public.

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseballBasketball
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Tipster index43.7#513 on the leaderboarddown 172 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche to win +1
Hit rate
38.9%
expected 47.3%
Edge
−8.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 22.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
18
7-11 · 1 pending
ROI
−43.3%
on 10 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.31 u
Average odds
2.03
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W3, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1.5-1-0.5012 Sept22 Sept1 Oct11 Oct21 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF6-7 · 13 graded
−1.5
46%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
+1.7
50%
Hockey0-2 · 2 graded
−39.5
0%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−56.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap5-5 · 10 graded
+0.7
50%
Match result1-4 · 5 graded
−26.2
20%
Totals1-1 · 2 graded
−9.1
50%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−9.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded
+4.3
67%
Even5-8 · 13 graded
−9.7
38%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−29.0
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-3 · 5 graded
−26.2%
40%
1.90…2.291-3 · 4 graded
-
25%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −11.5 pp
    2-5 · 29%
  • October 2026
    −6.5 pp
    5-6 · 45%
    ROI −47.3%

By league

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Picks

Same-game combo · 2posted 23 Oct, 21:32 · 3 h before start
Pending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche to win◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 3.5◷
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 19:29 · 7 h before start
odds 3.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
3:6
Carolina Hurricanes
Vancouver Canucks to win
Open on Xexpected 29% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 19:29 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
2:6
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 19:49 · 4 h before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
65:79
Atlanta Dream
Golden State Valkyries −2.5
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 16 Oct, 22:21 · 2 h before start
Void
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win∅
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5∅
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
New York Giants +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:18 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Over 54.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:18 · 5 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:05 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 22:12 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres +1.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 20:57 · 3 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 38.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:50 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 23 Sept, 20:08 · 3 h before start
odds 2.18DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
1:0
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 15:12 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
6:20
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Same-game combo · 3posted 19 Sept, 14:55 · 9 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
32:24
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers −2.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
32:24
LSU Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
32:24
LSU Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels +3✓
Open on Xexpected 10% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 14:42 · 2 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
10:23
New York Jets
New York Jets to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 16:04 · 2 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
20:13
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 16:04 · 2 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 16:04 · 2 days before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:30
New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions −7
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u