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Andy from Austin

@AndyFromAustin1.2K followersfirst pick 22 Augusually posts 3 h before start

NHL & NFL🤠Ice Person🏒🧊Ice House 2025🏒🏠Andy🏈Teazers 52-26-1 (67%) 2025-6, 9-6 '26-7🏀Go Spurs Go🏈Cowboys🔴Arsenal🏒Stars/Leafs🌟🍁*IN RECOVERY* 79 Days🙏

NFL & NCAAFHockeyFootballBaseball
Tipster index49.3#250 on the leaderboarddown 159 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 50.8%
Edge
−0.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 34.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
26
13-13
ROI
-
on 4 picks with odds
Average odds
3.36
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W4, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-101223 Aug5 Sept17 Sept29 Sept12 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF6-5 · 11 graded
−0.3
55%
Hockey3-5 · 8 graded
−13.6
38%
Football2-2 · 4 graded
+10.8
50%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+16.1
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals3-6 · 9 graded
−27.3
33%
Match result6-3 · 9 graded
+21.8
67%
Parlays4-4 · 8 graded
+3.6
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-3 · 6 graded
−15.9
50%
Even3-5 · 8 graded
−16.5
38%
Underdog3-1 · 4 graded
+44.5
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

2.30…3.492-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
3.50+1-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +8.3 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • September 2026
    +23.3 pp
    7-3 · 70%
  • October 2026
    −19.3 pp
    5-9 · 36%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:54 · 5 min before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 20:00 · 3 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
3:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
penalties
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:54 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 16:57 · 7 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 16:57 · 9 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:5
Edmonton Oilers
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Parlay · 2posted 6 Oct, 22:02 · 57 min before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
Nashville Predators
Toronto Maple Leafs to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
3:2
Minnesota Wild
Over 5.5✕
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:02 · 57 min before start
odds 3.22Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
Nashville Predators
Toronto Maple Leafs to win@3.22
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds+2.22 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:47 · 28 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Over 41
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Parlay · 2posted 5 Oct, 23:18 · 11 min before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
5:0
San Jose Sharks
Over 6✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
1:4
Ottawa Senators
Over 5.5✕
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 23:30 · 29 min before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
3:2
Florida Panthers
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:38 · 22 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 42
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 19:47 · 13 min before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
5:3
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 22:11 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 44
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 14:45 · 8 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
6:3
Buffalo Sabres
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 24 Sept, 21:42 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +10.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Under 49↺
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 15:47 · 9 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
33:30
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Parlay · 2posted 20 Sept, 15:47 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
20:24
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
3:34
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers +4✓
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 11:27 · 3 h before start
odds 2.81Lost
Premier League·
Brighton
3:0
Arsenal
Arsenal to win@2.81
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 17 Sept, 21:27 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions +11.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Over 49✓
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 14 Sept, 23:48 · 27 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos +8✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Over 36.5✓
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 03:20 · 17 h before start
Won
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
6:7
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 45% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 10 Sept, 21:21 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +10✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
Under 54.5✓
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Parlay · 2posted 9 Sept, 14:05 · 10 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks +3.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Over 38✕
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 11:19 · 4 h before start
odds 2.42Won
Premier League·
Arsenal
2:1
Chelsea
Arsenal to win@2.42
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds+1.42 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 13:12 · 3 h before start
Lost
Premier League·
Tottenham Hotspur
0:2
Newcastle United
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 22 Aug, 11:47 · 2 days before start
odds 5.01Won
Premier League·
Fulham
2:3
Chelsea
Chelsea to win@5.01
Open on Xexpected 19% from odds+4.01 u