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Marc Colcer

@marccolcer50.7K followersfirst pick 9 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Creator | Podcaster | Photographer | Contact: MarcColcerMCMG@gmail.com

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index44.2#504 on the leaderboarddown 222 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 56.9%
Edge
−6.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 33.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
22
11-11
ROI
−40.9%
on 15 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.93 u
Average odds
1.74
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W5, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1.5-1-0.508 Aug26 Aug13 Sept1 Oct18 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF11-10 · 21 graded
−4.5
52%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−56.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-8 · 11 graded
−33.9
27%
Handicap6-3 · 9 graded
+15.2
67%
Totals2-0 · 2 graded
+42.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-4 · 10 graded
−9.9
60%
Even4-7 · 11 graded
−10.3
36%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+60.0
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-3 · 5 graded
−46.4%
40%
1.50…1.891-3 · 4 graded
-
25%
1.90…2.291-3 · 4 graded
-
25%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −56.4 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • September 2026
    +2.0 pp
    6-4 · 60%
  • October 2026
    −10.5 pp
    5-6 · 45%
    ROI −11.3%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 5 h before start
odds 1.11DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 86% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.33DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.28 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 6 h before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line+0.40 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 2.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns to win
Open on Xexpected 40% from the closing line+1.40 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:22 · 52 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Under 40.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 23:14 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −10
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 05:06 · 8 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts −4.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:06 · 53 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:24
New York Jets
Detroit Lions −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:06 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
31:34
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:06 · 4 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
27:35
Las Vegas Raiders
New Orleans Saints to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:06 · 53 min before start
odds 1.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
33:31
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:55 · 1 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
17:20
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −5.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:55 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio State Buckeyes
42:19
Illinois Fighting Illini
Ohio State Buckeyes −25.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:55 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:28
Ole Miss Rebels
Florida Gators +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:55 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:55 · 9 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
31:24
Missouri Tigers
Mississippi State Bulldogs −5.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 14:55 · 9 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
27:41
Oregon Ducks
Over 61.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 9 Aug, 01:01 · 19 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
4:2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u