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HennyLocks

@HennyLocks09434 followersfirst pick 8 Octusually posts 3 h before start
NFL & NCAAFBasketballHockeyBaseball
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Tipster index55.4#168 on the leaderboarddown 37 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics −2.5@1.91
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Minnesota Timberwolves
Orlando Magic −1.5@1.91
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Wyoming Cowboys +6.5@1.83
Hit rate
56.1%
expected 51.5%
Edge
+4.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
41
23-18 · 3 pending
ROI
+2.0%
on 39 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.40 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2028 Oct11 Oct15 Oct19 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF16-11 · 27 graded
+7.2
59%
Hockey2-4 · 6 graded
−18.6
33%
Basketball3-2 · 5 graded
+10.8
60%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+17.9
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap15-9 · 24 graded
+10.7
63%
Match result4-4 · 8 graded
−1.4
50%
Totals3-5 · 8 graded
−13.4
38%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+52.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded
−0.8
67%
Even20-17 · 37 graded
+3.8
54%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.898-7 · 15 graded
−3.8%
53%
1.90…2.2912-11 · 23 graded
+1.9%
52%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +4.6 pp
    23-18 · 56%
    ROI +2.0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:21 · 6 h before start
odds 1.83Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Wyoming Cowboys +6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:21 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:21 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Minnesota Timberwolves
Orlando Magic −1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:32 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Under 50.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:32 · 6 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder −8.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:32 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Kennesaw State Owls +9.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:32 · 5 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Carolina Hurricanes to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:32 · 4 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
6:2
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:20 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat −1.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:20 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets −1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies −1.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:20 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors +6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:20 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 03:15 · 20 h before start
odds 1.74Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
2:6
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:04 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Under 51.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:04 · 25 min before start
odds 1.74Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
3:1
San Jose Sharks
Toronto Maple Leafs to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:36 · 43 min before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:51 · 33 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:51 · 33 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Under 53.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:14 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints +1.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:01 · 3 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles +3.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:01 · 3 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +6.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 19:09 · 20 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers +19.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:03 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
31:0
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Under 55.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:03 · 10 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
43:35
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles +20.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:03 · 10 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Houston Cougars
35:32
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Under 62.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:49 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:46 · 1 h before start
odds 2.00Void
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:44 · 3 days before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +3.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 22:53 · 37 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Old Dominion Monarchs
15:23
Georgia Southern Eagles
Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u