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Joseph Hebert

@josephhebert81618 followersfirst pick 26 Septusually posts 31 min before start

LSU Alum and LSU insider for Football and Baseball | Founder of BSLSU podcast | @BSSports365 | #JustDifferent

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index51.4needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
55.6%
expected 52.4%
Edge
+3.1 pp
over expectation
Graded
9
5-4
ROI
-
posts no odds
Average odds
-
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.4-0.200.225 Sept29 Sept3 Oct7 Oct12 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF5-4 · 9 graded
+3.1
56%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap5-2 · 7 graded
+22.6
71%
Totals0-1 · 1 graded
−54.4
0%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−75.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−21.8
50%
Even2-2 · 4 graded
−3.2
50%
Underdog2-1 · 3 graded
+28.2
67%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +31.8 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    −0.4 pp
    4-4 · 50%

By league

  • NFL3-260%+14.1
  • NCAAF2-250%−10.6

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:53 · 31 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −5.5
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:53 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:53 · 31 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Under 47.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:11 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
15:17
UCLA Bruins
Oregon Ducks over 32.5
Open on Xexpected 75% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:11 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Vanderbilt Commodores
17:52
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels −9.5
Open on Xexpected 43% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:57 · 28 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs −4.5
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:57 · 28 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks −6.5
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 16:14 · 31 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
38:14
Vanderbilt Commodores
Georgia Bulldogs −26.5
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:52 · 3 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +6.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model