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@BetOpenly4.8K followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 55 min before start

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NFL & NCAAFBaseballHockeyBasketballFootballTennis
CompareRSS
Tipster index45.4#485 on the leaderboarddown 60 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 52.9%
Edge
−2.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 42.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
102
51-51
ROI
−2.1%
on 83 picks with odds · max drawdown −10.26 u
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W9, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-5-2.502.551 Aug21 Aug11 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF24-33 · 57 graded
−9.0
42%
Baseball21-11 · 32 graded
+10.5
66%
Hockey2-4 · 6 graded
−14.0
33%
Basketball3-2 · 5 graded
−1.0
60%
Tennis1-0 · 1 graded
+26.5
100%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−62.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result25-27 · 52 graded
−5.5
48%
Handicap18-20 · 38 graded
−4.9
47%
Totals6-3 · 9 graded
+13.1
67%
Parlays1-1 · 2 graded
+11.0
50%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+30.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-17 · 28 graded
−28.3
39%
Even33-27 · 60 graded
+5.0
55%
Underdog6-6 · 12 graded
+14.2
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-5 · 8 graded
−53.4%
38%
1.50…1.8918-15 · 33 graded
−7.5%
55%
1.90…2.2915-14 · 29 graded
+3.3%
52%
2.30…3.495-7 · 12 graded
+10.3%
42%
3.50+1-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +23.7 pp
    16-4 · 80%
    ROI +44.5%
  • September 2026
    −13.4 pp
    14-20 · 41%
    ROI −16.0%
  • October 2026
    −6.6 pp
    21-27 · 44%
    ROI −11.2%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:02 · 12 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:27 · 33 min before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:36 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:34 · 1 h before start
odds 1.66DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.66 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:26 · 33 min before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Oct, 17:42 · 7 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Under 50.5✓
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 00:18 · 2 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys −3.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:44 · 36 min before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.02 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 22:47 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 20:05 · 20 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:55 · 29 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:37 · 27 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals +12.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:30 · 30 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.18DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns to win
Open on Xexpected 81% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:36 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:4
Boston Bruins
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:52 · 3 h before start
odds 3.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Tulane Green Wave to win
Open on Xexpected 31% from the closing line+2.10 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 00:03 · 12 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Over 40.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:44 · 16 min before start
odds 2.17DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:53 · 2 h before start
odds 1.72DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.72 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 20:44 · 3 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 22:55 · 4 min before start
odds 1.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Pre-season·
Toronto Raptors
148:98
New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line+0.24 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 23:44 · 16 min before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:7
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 22:32 · 2 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 21:22 · 3 h before start
odds 2.60Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win@2.60
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds+1.60 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:10 · 14 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −5.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 18:14 · 2 h before start
odds 2.50Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
Washington Commanders −3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:36 · 24 min before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:09 · 51 min before start
odds 2.80Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u