Miles Commodore

@miles_commodore380K followersfirst pick 5 Septusually posts 59 min before start

My Cousin Vinny fanatic

NFL & NCAAF

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Tipster index43.1#357 on the leaderboarddeveloping sample

Hit rate

47.5%

expected 53.5%

Edge

−6.0 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 35.1%, the edge is within noise

Graded

19-21

ROI

posts no odds

Average odds

singles with odds

Form

streak L1 · best W3, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF19-21 · 40 graded

−6.0

48%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap16-17 · 33 graded

−5.0

48%

Match result3-3 · 6 graded

−8.7

50%

Parlays0-1 · 1 graded

−23.5

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-8 · 12 graded

−34.0

33%

Even9-6 · 15 graded

+4.2

60%

Underdog6-6 · 12 graded

+10.5

50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks

September 2026
−8.1 pp
13-16 · 45%
October 2026
−0.6 pp
6-5 · 55%

By league

NFL10-1148%−6.5
NCAAF9-1047%−5.5

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 12 Oct, 00:14 · 6 min before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·12 Oct, 00:20

Atlanta Falcons

23:30

Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons −3.5

Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:27 · 58 min before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 20:25

Seattle Seahawks

29:32

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers +3.5

Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:46 · 14 min before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 17:00

Pittsburgh Steelers

34:22

Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers −3

Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:14 · 1 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 13:30

Jacksonville Jaguars

19:17

Philadelphia Eagles

Jacksonville Jaguars to win

Singleposted 10 Oct, 21:54 · 2 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 23:30

Alabama Crimson Tide

17:20

Georgia Bulldogs

Alabama Crimson Tide −2.5

Singleposted 10 Oct, 18:55 · 34 min before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 19:30

California Golden Bears

25:20

Virginia Tech Hokies

Virginia Tech Hokies −10.5

Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 40 min before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 16:00

Missouri Tigers

27:6

Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M Aggies +4.5

Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:09 · 50 min before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 16:00

Pittsburgh Panthers

17:21

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5

Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:05 · 54 min before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 16:00

Nebraska Cornhuskers

17:20

Indiana Hoosiers

Nebraska Cornhuskers +8.5

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:29 · 45 min before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·6 Oct, 00:15

New Orleans Saints

24:45

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons to win

Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:06 · 54 min before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 16:00

Minnesota Golden Gophers

20:14

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan Wolverines to win

Singleposted 27 Sept, 02:44 · 14 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·27 Sept, 17:00

New York Giants

12:7

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans +5.5

Singleposted 26 Sept, 18:27 · 1 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 19:30

Iowa State Cyclones

17:31

Utah Utes

Utah Utes −7.5

Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:40 · 5 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 21:00

Bowling Green Falcons

6:14

South Florida Bulls

Bowling Green Falcons +23.5

Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:40 · 6 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 22:00

Texas State Bobcats

63:10

Incarnate Word Cardinals

Texas State Bobcats −3

Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:40 · 4 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 19:30

Florida Gators

52:28

Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss Rebels +3

Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:40 · 7 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 23:00

West Virginia Mountaineers

24:41

Oklahoma State Cowboys

West Virginia Mountaineers +10.5

Singleposted 24 Sept, 22:16 · 2 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·25 Sept, 00:15

Green Bay Packers

14:35

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons to win

Singleposted 20 Sept, 19:48 · 16 min before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·20 Sept, 20:05

Los Angeles Chargers

14:26

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers −6.5

Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:10 · 50 min before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·20 Sept, 17:00

New England Patriots

20:3

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5

Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:07 · 52 min before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·20 Sept, 17:00

New York Jets

17:20

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers −3.5

Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:00 · 1 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·20 Sept, 17:00

Chicago Bears

3:9

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings +4.5

Singleposted 20 Sept, 15:33 · 1 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·20 Sept, 17:00

Tennessee Titans

20:24

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles −7.5

Singleposted 20 Sept, 13:33 · 3 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·20 Sept, 17:00

Houston Texans

6:20

Cincinnati Bengals

Houston Texans −2.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 22:13 · 1 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:30

Ole Miss Rebels

32:24

LSU Tigers

Ole Miss Rebels +3

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:15 · 15 min before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 15:30

Delaware Blue Hens

22:14

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:15 · 45 min before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 16:00

Arkansas Razorbacks

17:45

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Bulldogs −25.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:15 · 45 min before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 16:00

Clemson Tigers

28:20

North Carolina Tar Heels

Clemson Tigers −3

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:15 · 45 min before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 16:00

Iowa State Cyclones

55:7

Bowling Green Falcons

Bowling Green Falcons +23.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:15 · 45 min before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 16:00

Texas State Bobcats

49:35

North Texas Mean Green

Texas State Bobcats −3