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The Bet Commander

@TheBetCommander33 followersfirst pick 11 Octusually posts 7 h before start

Army Vet | Commanding the board one play at a time 👑 | PODs, futures & value leans | Trust the process. Cash the ticket.

NFL & NCAAFFootballTennisHockey
CompareRSS
Tipster index53.2#237 on the leaderboarddown 156 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
60.0%
expected 56.0%
Edge
+4.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 41.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
20
12-8
ROI
+17.5%
on 6 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.80
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W7, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

01210 Oct12 Oct14 Oct16 Oct18 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF9-7 · 16 graded
+1.6
56%
Football1-1 · 2 graded
−23.2
50%
Hockey1-0 · 1 graded
+50.4
100%
Tennis1-0 · 1 graded
+50.6
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap8-8 · 16 graded
−6.5
50%
Match result2-0 · 2 graded
+42.6
100%
Totals2-0 · 2 graded
+50.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-4 · 10 graded
−3.7
60%
Even6-4 · 10 graded
+11.8
60%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +4.0 pp
    12-8 · 60%
    ROI +17.5%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:21 · 8 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:21 · 11 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:21 · 8 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:21 · 8 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:21 · 8 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants +1.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:29 · 31 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
James Madison Dukes
49:22
Georgia State Panthers
James Madison Dukes −12.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:29 · 9 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
38:34
Navy Midshipmen
Navy Midshipmen +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:29 · 31 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
45:42
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:29 · 31 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns −10.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:29 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Syracuse Orange
26:34
Louisville Cardinals
Syracuse Orange +15.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 04:18 · 52 min before start
odds 1.93Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Elina Svitolina
1:2
Sonay Kartal
Over 21.5 games@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 14:08 · 3 h before start
odds 1.46DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
LASK
3:6
Liverpool
Liverpool to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.46 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 14:08 · 5 h before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
2:4
Paris Saint-Germain
Manchester City +0.5
Open on Xexpected 81% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 12:50 · 10 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
2:3
Seattle Kraken
penalties
Seattle Kraken to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 14:42 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Won
CFL · CFL: Regular Season·
Montreal Alouettes
44:24
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Montreal Alouettes −3.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:45 · 7 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:45 · 7 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:45 · 39 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:45 · 11 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:45 · 7 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Under 40.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model