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Double Mug Season

@DoubleMugSeason5 followersfirst pick 5 Septusually posts 3 days before start
NFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index58.4#146 on the leaderboardup 100 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
-:-
Alabama Crimson Tide
LSU Tigers −5.5
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio State Buckeyes
-:-
Oregon Ducks
Ohio State Buckeyes −7.5@1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio State Buckeyes
-:-
Oregon Ducks
Over 42.5
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
-:-
Kentucky Wildcats
Tennessee Volunteers −6.5
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
-:-
Georgia Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels +3.5
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
-:-
West Virginia Mountaineers
Texas Tech Red Raiders −16.5
Hit rate
59.1%
expected 52.0%
Edge
+7.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 46.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
44
26-18 · 6 pending
ROI
+42.6%
on 12 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.11 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W5, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2024 Sept19 Sept3 Oct18 Oct1 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF26-18 · 44 graded
+7.0
59%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap20-13 · 33 graded
+8.7
61%
Totals5-5 · 10 graded
−5.1
50%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+75.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-3 · 7 graded
−8.3
57%
Even18-14 · 32 graded
+4.8
56%
Underdog3-1 · 4 graded
+35.0
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-2 · 6 graded
+24.6%
67%
1.90…2.295-1 · 6 graded
+60.7%
83%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −3.6 pp
    8-8 · 50%
  • October 2026
    +12.2 pp
    17-10 · 63%
    ROI +42.6%
  • November 2026
    +40.4 pp
    1-0 · 100%

By league

  • NCAAF25-1760%+7.5
  • NFL1-150%−1.6

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Picks

Singleposted 5 Nov, 04:18 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
-:-
Alabama Crimson Tide
LSU Tigers −5.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 5 Nov, 04:18 · 3 days before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio State Buckeyes
-:-
Oregon Ducks
Ohio State Buckeyes −7.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 5 Nov, 04:18 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
-:-
Kentucky Wildcats
Tennessee Volunteers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 5 Nov, 04:18 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
-:-
Georgia Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 5 Nov, 04:18 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
-:-
West Virginia Mountaineers
Texas Tech Red Raiders −16.5
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 5 Nov, 04:18 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio State Buckeyes
-:-
Oregon Ducks
Over 42.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 15 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Navy Midshipmen
13:35
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Over 56.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 41 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
30:33
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 15 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
30:0
Wisconsin Badgers
Under 36.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 18 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
52:24
Stanford Cardinal
Louisville Cardinals −22.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 15 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Syracuse Orange
30:27
SMU Mustangs
Syracuse Orange +9.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 15 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Duke Blue Devils
47:2
Boston College Eagles
Duke Blue Devils −7.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 23 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas Razorbacks
10:34
Missouri Tigers
Arkansas Razorbacks +10.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:59 · 23 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
30:18
Ohio State Buckeyes
USC Trojans +6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 01:39 · 18 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
27:24
Tennessee Volunteers
South Carolina Gamecocks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 01:39 · 22 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
34:17
Vanderbilt Commodores
Under 51.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 01:39 · 14 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
6:13
Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan Wolverines +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 02:46 · 45 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Under 51.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 02:46 · 3 days before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Boston College Eagles
27:21
Pittsburgh Panthers
Boston College Eagles +6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 02:46 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns −11.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 02:46 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
31:0
Mississippi State Bulldogs
LSU Tigers −14.5
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 02:46 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 16:19 · 7 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
31:24
South Florida Bulls
UTSA Roadrunners −6.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 16:19 · 2 days before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nebraska Cornhuskers
17:20
Indiana Hoosiers
Under 48.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 16:19 · 2 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions −1.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 16:19 · 2 days before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas Razorbacks
17:24
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 16:19 · 2 days before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas State Wildcats
16:35
Houston Cougars
Kansas State Wildcats −2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 16:19 · 34 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
24:10
Iowa State Cyclones
BYU Cougars −10.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 16:19 · 2 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma State Cowboys
42:28
UCF Knights
Oklahoma State Cowboys −11.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 01:26 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
57:3
Stanford Cardinal
Under 53.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model