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Fade MoonDog 🐺

@FadeTheMoonDog78 followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 5 h before start

My friend bets on everything. I log every slip. 🧾 🏈 His Circa Million five, every week. Not picks. Just a lot of bets, win or lose. 👇

NFL & NCAAFTennisBaseballFootball
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Tipster index57.6#124 on the leaderboardup 41 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
56.7%
expected 51.0%
Edge
+5.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 46.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
61
34-26-1
ROI
+22.7%
on 30 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.45 u
Average odds
1.87
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W5, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-2022 Aug22 Aug10 Sept30 Sept20 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF22-12-1 · 35 graded
+13.2
65%
Tennis7-10 · 17 graded
−11.0
41%
Baseball5-3 · 8 graded
+12.2
63%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−18.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap20-9-1 · 30 graded
+16.5
69%
Match result11-10 · 21 graded
−4.3
52%
Parlays0-6 · 6 graded
−22.8
0%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+19.6
67%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+30.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite8-5 · 13 graded
−7.4
62%
Even26-15-1 · 42 graded
+14.0
63%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.8910-4-1 · 15 graded
+26.3%
71%
1.90…2.299-5 · 14 graded
+27.5%
64%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −18.5 pp
    3-5 · 38%
  • September 2026
    +10.4 pp
    11-7 · 61%
    ROI +44.7%
  • October 2026
    +8.8 pp
    20-14-1 · 59%
    ROI +25.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:23 · 11 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans +2.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:23 · 18 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +8
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:23 · 15 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints −1
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:23 · 15 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:23 · 46 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 03:45 · 3 h before start
Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Rafael Jodar
2:1
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud to win
Open on Xexpected 45% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 20:06 · 11 h before start
Void
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Arthur Gea
void
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 20:06 · 14 h before start
Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Jasmine Paolini
0:2
Sonay Kartal
Sonay Kartal to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:25 · 4 min before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:25 · 4 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:25 · 4 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots −3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:25 · 7 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:25 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 9 Oct, 20:25 · 5 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +3✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 42✕
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 20:25 · 5 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Jose State Spartans
13:16
Wyoming Cowboys
Under 42.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 20:25 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah State Aggies
17:16
Washington State Cougars
Under 44
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 20:25 · 3 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Louisville Cardinals over 31.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Parlay · 3posted 9 Oct, 04:52 · 57 min before start
Lost
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Qinwen Zheng
2:0
Elina Svitolina
Elina Svitolina to win✕
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Matteo Berrettini
0:2
Brandon Nakashima
Brandon Nakashima to win✓
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Quentin Halys
2:1
Alexander Blockx
Quentin Halys to win✓
Open on Xexpected 21% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 20:39 · 5 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 7 Oct, 20:39 · 3 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 7↺
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees −1.5✕
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 18:30 · 4 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 18:30 · 26 h before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
3:9
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line+1.10 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 18:30 · 19 h before start
Won
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Ann Li
0:2
Elina Svitolina
Elina Svitolina to win
Open on Xexpected 72% by model
Parlay · 3posted 5 Oct, 17:40 · 1 h before start
Lost
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 2·
Ukraine
1:2
Hungary
Ukraine +0.5✕
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Italy
3:1
Turkiye
Italy to win✓
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win✓
Open on Xexpected 18% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 20:19 · 5 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 20:19 · 5 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:25 · 18 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:25 · 15 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals −2.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:25 · 15 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
36:24
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals −2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:25 · 15 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
24:18
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +11.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u