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Zach

@DegenZ317144 followersfirst pick 11 Augusually posts 7 h before start

Pattern recognition specialist Smashing the bookies All dogs go to heaven

BaseballNFL & NCAAFBasketballHockeyFootball
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Tipster index52.9#267 on the leaderboardup 31 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
49.5%
expected 47.8%
Edge
+1.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
198
96-98-4
ROI
−2.0%
on 171 picks with odds · max drawdown −18.62 u
Average odds
2.07
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W5, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-202410 Aug29 Aug17 Sept6 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Baseball46-58 · 104 graded
−0.1
44%
NFL & NCAAF34-26-4 · 64 graded
+4.1
57%
Basketball9-9 · 18 graded
−1.0
50%
Hockey6-5 · 11 graded
+4.4
55%
Football1-0 · 1 graded
+57.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result35-50 · 85 graded
−2.8
41%
Handicap45-32-4 · 81 graded
+7.7
58%
Totals16-16 · 32 graded
−0.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-4-1 · 11 graded
−5.5
60%
Even84-87-3 · 174 graded
+1.6
49%
Underdog6-7 · 13 graded
+7.3
46%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8914-7-1 · 22 graded
+23.9%
67%
1.90…2.2959-71-1 · 131 graded
−7.6%
45%
2.30…3.498-10 · 18 graded
+6.7%
44%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +1.5 pp
    27-32 · 46%
    ROI −0.8%
  • September 2026
    −1.7 pp
    37-43-2 · 46%
    ROI −8.4%
  • October 2026
    +6.8 pp
    32-23-2 · 58%
    ROI +8.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:49 · 8 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
2:1
Vegas Golden Knights
Over 6
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:49 · 9 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
127:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +12.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:49 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
125:121
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets +11.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:49 · 11 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
114:121
Houston Rockets
Under 227.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 13:08 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bearcats
37:24
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech Red Raiders −11.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 13:08 · 6 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCF Knights
39:31
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights +7.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 13:08 · 28 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 13:08 · 10 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
24:7
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 13:08 · 10 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
34:17
Vanderbilt Commodores
Kentucky Wildcats −10.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:36 · 8 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
1:4
Montreal Canadiens
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:04 · 8 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics −2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:10 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:51 · 9 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets +8.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:46 · 8 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
2:1
Minnesota Wild
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 17:56 · 6 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:42 · 10 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
121:96
Sacramento Kings
LA Clippers −4.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:40 · 9 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
Over 233.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:19 · 7 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +3.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 20:25 · 3 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
2:6
Toronto Maple Leafs
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 20:22 · 3 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
2:5
Los Angeles Kings
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:42 · 12 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:40 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 17:56 · 6 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 17:52 · 6 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
3:1
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 17:50 · 5 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
5:2
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 17:46 · 5 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 22:31 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 53.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 07:10 · 13 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Under 53.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 07:07 · 10 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 07:07 · 10 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Over 44.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model