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OPM

@1puncchh8.1K followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 2 h before start

I Stare At Sports Until Something Makes Sense • Not Financial Advice • Second community https://t.co/seBFWI9zUR (5000+ Members) | Sponsored by @Divvybet

BaseballNFL & NCAAFBasketballTennisHockeyFootball
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Tipster index53.2#259 on the leaderboardup 61 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
54.1%
expected 52.2%
Edge
+1.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 47.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
150
79-67-4
ROI
+1.7%
on 149 picks with odds · max drawdown −12.27 u
Average odds
1.83
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W5, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-5-2.502.51 Aug23 Aug13 Sept4 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Baseball36-34-1 · 71 graded
−1.0
51%
NFL & NCAAF27-28-3 · 58 graded
−2.7
49%
Basketball9-3 · 12 graded
+25.2
75%
Tennis7-0 · 7 graded
+45.9
100%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−67.6
0%
Hockey0-1 · 1 graded
−56.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result43-43-2 · 88 graded
−2.4
50%
Handicap20-15-1 · 36 graded
+3.6
57%
Totals13-8-1 · 22 graded
+8.8
62%
Parlays2-1 · 3 graded
+42.1
67%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+48.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-2 · 2 graded
−67.8
0%
Even75-61-4 · 140 graded
+1.8
55%
Underdog2-3 · 5 graded
+8.1
40%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.8965-43-3 · 111 graded
+4.6%
60%
1.90…2.2910-16-1 · 27 graded
−23.7%
38%
2.30…3.492-3 · 5 graded
+17.0%
40%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −1.7 pp
    27-25-1 · 52%
    ROI −6.6%
  • September 2026
    −0.8 pp
    18-18 · 50%
    ROI +5.8%
  • October 2026
    +6.8 pp
    34-24-3 · 59%
    ROI +6.3%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 19:34 · 31 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
16:30
Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals +4.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 19:34 · 31 min before start
odds 2.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
16:30
Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals to win@2.95
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 19:34 · 51 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
21:35
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 19:34 · 51 min before start
odds 1.71Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions −3@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:37 · 1 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
29:20
San Francisco 49ers
Under 51.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:21 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans +2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:21 · 2 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:10 · 8 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
93:106
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:10 · 8 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
117:94
Toronto Raptors
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:05 · 2 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
13:43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 18:21 · 5 h before start
odds 1.67Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
34:27
Ole Miss Rebels
Texas Longhorns to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.67 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:11 · 10 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
114:121
Houston Rockets
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:49 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
6:13
Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan Wolverines +9.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:05 · 8 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
111:128
Detroit Pistons
Miami Heat to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:45 · 7 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −2.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 18:58 · 7 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 18:40 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:05 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:53 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks −2.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:09 · 3 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:57 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Over 6.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 16:13 · 8 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 21:41 · 3 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:26 · 34 min before start
odds 1.74Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns +4@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:32 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:26 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New York Jets +8@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:26 · 2 h before start
odds 3.60Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New York Jets to win@3.60
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +2.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Houston Cougars
35:32
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Over 60.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Under 49.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u