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Jason Logan

@CoversJLo20.4K followersfirst pick 12 Septusually posts 25 h before start

Senior Industry Analyst @Covers since 2005 | Bio/Archive: https://t.co/AoghjniZoU | Host of “Sharp 600" podcast: https://t.co/4on0DX6Oje

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index64.8#39 on the leaderboardup 11 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
71.4%
expected 48.2%
Edge
+23.3 pp
hit rate at least 49.5% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
14
10-4
ROI
+52.5%
on 6 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.84
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W5, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

012311 Sept22 Sept3 Oct15 Oct26 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF10-4 · 14 graded
+23.3
71%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap5-4 · 9 graded
+11.4
56%
Totals4-0 · 4 graded
+45.6
100%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+40.6
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+35.7
100%
Even7-4 · 11 graded
+15.2
64%
Underdog2-0 · 2 graded
+61.3
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.90…2.292-0 · 2 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +20.8 pp
    8-4 · 67%
    ROI +50.8%
  • October 2026
    +38.1 pp
    2-0 · 100%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 23:45 · 35 min before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 17:58 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
34:13
Missouri State Bears
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:33 · 25 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
20:24
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles −4.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:33 · 25 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:20
Green Bay Packers
New York Jets −5.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:33 · 25 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:23
Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers −5.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:33 · 29 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
35:13
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers −10.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:33 · 2 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
Los Angeles Rams −8.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:31 · 4 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
10:23
New York Jets
New York Jets +1.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:31 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
34:10
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars −7.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:31 · 36 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:31 · 4 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
31:36
Buffalo Bills
Over 44.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:31 · 12 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
28:20
Dallas Cowboys
Over 47.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:31 · 36 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 12 Sept, 13:59 · 9 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
24:45
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee Volunteers −12.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u