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@netsportsbets_18 followersfirst pick 4 Octusually posts 3 h before start

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NFL & NCAAFHockey
Tipster index65.2#36 on the leaderboarddown 13 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
85.0%
expected 66.0%
Edge
+19.1 pp
hit rate at least 67.9% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
20
17-3
ROI
+17.4%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.51
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W9, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

0243 Oct7 Oct10 Oct14 Oct17 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF15-3 · 18 graded
+19.7
83%
Hockey2-0 · 2 graded
+13.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap7-0 · 7 graded
+31.8
100%
Match result6-1 · 7 graded
+19.6
86%
Totals4-0 · 4 graded
+23.1
100%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−35.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite17-0 · 17 graded
+29.0
100%
Even0-1 · 1 graded
−40.6
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.505-0 · 5 graded
+32.4%
100%
1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +19.1 pp
    17-3 · 85%
    ROI +17.4%

By league

  • NFL15-194%+26.6
  • NHL2-0100%+13.2

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Picks

Parlay · 3posted 14 Oct, 17:57 · 6 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Over 43.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Over 42.5✕
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 9.5✓
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 15:37 · 9 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
2:5
Vegas Golden Knights
Over 3.5
Open on Xexpected 91% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 15:37 · 9 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Over 4.5
Open on Xexpected 83% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
13:23
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
odds 1.26DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to win
Open on Xexpected 76% from the closing line+0.26 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
Washington Commanders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
odds 1.33DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.33 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Over 40.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:52 · 8 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Parlay · 3posted 8 Oct, 16:55 · 6 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Liberty Flames
35:3
Sam Houston State Bearkats
Liberty Flames to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
31:24
South Florida Bulls
UTSA Roadrunners to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys to win✕
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 17:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.60 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 17:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 17:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.28 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 17:37 · 7 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Over 48.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model