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Betting Intel

@cappers_intel12K followersfirst pick 12 Octusually posts 1 h before start

The capper of cappers. Betting sports for a living. Promoting transparency. Most handicappers are lying to you. I have the data to prove it.

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index62.4#63 on the leaderboarddown 52 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
62.5%
expected 52.4%
Edge
+10.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 50.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
48
30-18
ROI
+44.0%
on 27 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.92
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W7, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

02412 Oct14 Oct17 Oct20 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF15-14 · 29 graded
−1.7
52%
Hockey10-3 · 13 graded
+26.3
77%
Basketball4-0 · 4 graded
+46.7
100%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
+2.0
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result13-5 · 18 graded
+22.3
72%
Handicap9-7 · 16 graded
+0.6
56%
Totals7-5 · 12 graded
+3.8
58%
Parlays1-1 · 2 graded
+13.7
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite5-6 · 11 graded
−18.3
45%
Even22-11 · 33 graded
+16.2
67%
Underdog2-0 · 2 graded
+61.5
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8910-4 · 14 graded
+29.7%
71%
1.90…2.298-3 · 11 graded
+43.5%
73%
2.30…3.492-0 · 2 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +10.1 pp
    30-18 · 63%
    ROI +44.0%

By league

  • NFL8-657%+5.1
  • NCAAF7-750%−5.2
  • NHL9-282%+32.1
  • NBA4-0100%+46.7
  • MLB · USA1-150%+2.0
  • DEL · Germany1-150%−5.5

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 11:21 · 6 h before start
Won
Germany · DEL·
Nuernberg Ice Tigers
7:2
Krefeld Pinguine
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 11:21 · 6 h before start
Lost
Germany · DEL·
Schwenninger Wild Wings
4:2
Bremerhaven
Bremerhaven to win
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:55 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Winnipeg Jets
Under 5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:55 · 3 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder −8.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:40 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:29 · 2 h before start
odds 1.69Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:0
Nashville Predators
Boston Bruins to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:29 · 2 h before start
odds 2.06Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:6
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win@2.06
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds+1.06 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:29 · 4 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Edmonton Oilers to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:29 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
4:0
Florida Panthers
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:05 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors −10.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
LA Lakers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:03 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:27 · 32 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
23:26
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Under 45.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:27 · 32 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Delaware Blue Hens
61:38
Missouri State Bears
Missouri State Bears +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:11 · 49 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
23:26
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Over 46
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 21:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.64Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
5:2
Anaheim Ducks
New York Rangers to win@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.64 u
Parlay · 2posted 19 Oct, 21:12 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers to win✓
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians +1.5✕
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 20:54 · 3 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 20:36 · 2 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
5:2
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:23 · 36 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:59 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:59 · 4 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:59 · 8 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:28 · 32 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:28 · 32 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:17 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Under 50.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:52 · 22 min before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos +3
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:40 · 34 min before start
odds 2.10Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:40 · 34 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Under 40.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u