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Bonner’s Blazing 5

@BonnersBlazing536 followersfirst pick 5 Septusually posts 4 h before start

5 free locks on NFL Sundays https://t.co/3MOKKmvYkF

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index65.3#34 on the leaderboarddown 16 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
69.2%
expected 44.0%
Edge
+25.3 pp
hit rate at least 46.5% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
13
9-4
ROI
+115.6%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
2.73
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W7, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

0244 Sept17 Sept30 Sept13 Oct26 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF9-4 · 13 graded
+25.3
69%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap6-3 · 9 graded
+13.7
67%
Match result3-0 · 3 graded
+75.2
100%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−20.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+30.1
100%
Even5-2 · 7 graded
+18.9
71%
Underdog3-1 · 4 graded
+46.7
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+3-0 · 3 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +31.6 pp
    9-3 · 75%
    ROI +146.4%
  • October 2026
    −50.4 pp
    0-1 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 23:34 · 46 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 23:59 · 21 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −1.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 13:12 · 4 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
24:16
Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills −7
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 13:12 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
21:18
Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns +1.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 13:12 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
36:30
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals +7.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 13:12 · 7 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
31:34
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 13:12 · 7 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
27:35
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 13:12 · 4 h before start
odds 4.10Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
33:31
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Commanders to win@4.10
Open on Xexpected 23% from odds+3.10 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:15 · 15 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:15 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Auburn Tigers
21:15
Vanderbilt Commodores
Auburn Tigers −9.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:15 · 2 h before start
odds 4.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
20:24
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers to win
Open on Xexpected 24% from the closing line+3.00 u
Parlay · 6posted 13 Sept, 16:45 · 15 min before start
odds 3.60Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
31:36
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −1.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
20:13
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +6.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
34:10
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns +8.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
33:27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals −3.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
10:23
New York Jets
New York Jets +1.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:30
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win✕
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 15:57 · 4 h before start
odds 3.50Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Duke Blue Devils
17:3
Tulane Green Wave
Duke Blue Devils to win@3.50
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds+2.50 u