odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
117:129
Miami HeatMiami Heat to win
Cookie Picks
📈Calculated market execution. Inspired by my memories of Cookie 🐾 Data over narratives. Secure the daily board here 👇
BasketballBaseballHockeyNFL & NCAAF
Hit rate
63.6%
expected 49.2%
Edge
+14.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
11
7-4
ROI
+24.0%
on 11 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.96
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W3, worst L2
Wins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Hockey2-1 · 3 graded
+18.767%
Basketball2-1 · 3 graded
+17.567%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+20.267%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−5.350%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Match result7-2 · 9 graded
+28.878%
Handicap0-2 · 2 graded
−50.40%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Even7-4 · 11 graded
+14.464%
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-75%
1.90…2.294-3 · 7 graded
+20.0%57%
Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks- October 2026+14.4 pp7-4 · 64%ROI +24.0%
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Picks
Miami Heatodds 2.10Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:4
Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays to win@2.10
odds 2.10Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
4:3
Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays to win@2.10
odds 1.87Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
2:1
Los Angeles KingsChicago Blackhawks to win@1.87
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers to win
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia Eagles +4.5
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
120:110
Atlanta HawksAtlanta Hawks +4.5
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
1:2
Montreal CanadiensWinnipeg Jets to win
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City ChiefsSeattle Seahawks to win
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
93:106
Detroit PistonsDetroit Pistons to win
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
4:1
Detroit Red WingsCalgary Flames to win