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Best QMan Picks

@QMan_best_Picks1.1K followersfirst pick 16 Octusually posts 10 h before start

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Tipster index60.5#87 on the leaderboardnewestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Luca Van Assche
live
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti to win@1.46
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win +4@15.35
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win@1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers −6.5
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win@2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks +3.5
Hit rate
66.1%
expected 58.5%
Edge
+7.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 56.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
65
43-22 · 33 pending
ROI
−1.1%
on 50 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.85 u
Average odds
1.68
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W8, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

02416 Oct17 Oct19 Oct21 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Hockey10-7 · 17 graded
+2.2
59%
Basketball10-7 · 17 graded
+4.7
59%
Football13-2 · 15 graded
+21.6
87%
Tennis9-4 · 13 graded
+8.0
69%
NFL & NCAAF1-2 · 3 graded
−14.5
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result27-17 · 44 graded
+2.2
61%
Handicap6-3 · 9 graded
+8.3
67%
Totals8-0 · 8 graded
+26.5
100%
Parlays1-2 · 3 graded
+23.7
33%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+46.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite25-5 · 30 graded
+12.0
83%
Even17-14 · 31 graded
+3.3
55%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−32.8
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5011-3 · 14 graded
+2.3%
79%
1.50…1.8914-8 · 22 graded
+5.1%
64%
1.90…2.296-7 · 13 graded
−7.6%
46%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +7.7 pp
    43-22 · 66%
    ROI −1.1%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 5posted 23 Oct, 15:50 · 4 h before start
odds 15.35Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win@1.89◷
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics to win@1.75◷
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@1.85◷
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.70◷
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win@1.48◷
Open on Xexpected 5% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:25 · 10 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:25 · 10 h before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 14 h before start
odds 1.46Pending
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Luca Van Assche
live
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti to win@1.46
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 7 h before start
odds 1.62Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Clement Chidekh
0:2
Francisco Cerundolo
Francisco Cerundolo to win@1.62
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.62 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 9 h before start
odds 1.67Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Tallon Griekspoor
2:1
Jiri Lehecka
Tallon Griekspoor to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.67 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 12 h before start
odds 1.52Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Arthur Fils
2:0
Alex Michelsen
Arthur Fils to win@1.52
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds+0.52 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 14 h before start
odds 1.50Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Jan-Lennard Struff
2:0
Zizou Bergs
Zizou Bergs to win@1.50
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 9 h before start
odds 1.76Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Alexander Bublik
2:1
Karen Khachanov
Alexander Bublik to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 4 h before start
odds 1.76Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Iva Jovic
1:2
Diana Shnaider
Iva Jovic to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 2 h before start
odds 1.75Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Leylah Fernandez
2:1
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ekaterina Alexandrova to win@1.75
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:17 · 12 h before start
odds 1.56Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Flavio Cobolli
2:1
Brandon Nakashima
Flavio Cobolli to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:47 · 9 h before start
odds 1.33Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Tallon Griekspoor
2:1
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka to win@1.33
Open on Xexpected 72% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:47 · 10 h before start
odds 1.25Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Daniel Altmaier
0:2
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz to win@1.25
Open on Xexpected 76% from odds+0.25 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:47 · 3 h before start
odds 1.20Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Stefanos Tsitsipas
2:0
James Duckworth
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win@1.20
Open on Xexpected 79% from odds+0.20 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 15 h before start
odds 1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 18 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks +3.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 18 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 18 h before start
odds 1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 18 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 18 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 19 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
-:-
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 21 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
-:-
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 21 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
-:-
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 21 h before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
-:-
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 21 h before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
-:-
LA Clippers
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:44 · 21 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Sacramento Kings
-:-
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 02:21 · 2 days before start
odds 1.57Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
-:-
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 02:21 · 3 days before start
odds 1.65Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
-:-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 02:21 · 3 days before start
odds 1.68Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
-:-
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to win@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds