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doesn't matter

@dsntmttrw5.1K followersfirst pick 31 Augusually posts 19 h before start
Basketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index61.1needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
77.8%
expected 53.8%
Edge
+24.0 pp
over expectation
Graded
9
7-2
ROI
+37.8%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.77
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

01230 Aug11 Sept23 Sept5 Oct16 Oct

By sport

Basketball7-2 · 9 graded
+24.0
78%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals7-2 · 9 graded
+24.0
78%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even7-2 · 9 graded
+24.0
78%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.897-2 · 9 graded
+37.8%
78%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +46.2 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • September 2026
    +46.9 pp
    3-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +5.8 pp
    3-2 · 60%
    ROI +5.0%

By league

  • EuroLeague3-175%+20.6
  • Liga ACB · Spain3-175%+21.8
  • World Cup1-0100%+46.2

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Picks

Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:33 · 21 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Virtus Bologna
86:78
Saski Baskonia
Over 175.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:02 · 19 h before start
odds 1.76Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Real Madrid
111:92
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne
Over 172.5@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 23:08 · 17 h before start
odds 1.73Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Hapoel Tel Aviv
100:82
Beşiktaş
Over 173.5@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.73 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 22:30 · 21 h before start
odds 1.76Won
Spain · Liga ACB·
CB Breogan Lugo
115:92
Basquet Girona
Over 183.5@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 21:29 · 18 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
Spain · Liga ACB·
Basket Zaragoza
82:97
Valencia
Over 179.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 13:22 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80Won
Spain · Liga ACB·
Real Madrid
89:87
Unicaja
Over 172.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 13:53 · 29 h before start
odds 1.80Won
Spain · Liga ACB·
Barcelona
119:101
Basquet Coruna
Over 173.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 09:43 · 33 h before start
odds 1.78Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Saski Baskonia
89:106
Olympiacos B.C.
Over 171.5@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 15:22 · 4 h before start
odds 1.77Won
World Cup · Qualification: Europe: 2nd Round: Group J·
Iceland
73:110
Turkiye
Over 169.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u