Alpha Capital Sports

@AlphaCsports1021 followersfirst pick 27 Oct

📊 Análisis cuantitativo y gestión de riesgo en mercados deportivos. ⚾ MLB | 🏀 NBA | 🏈 NFL | 🏒NHL 🧐Sharp Money, Disciplina y Ventaja Matemática.

NFL & NCAAF

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Tipster index46.7needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

0.0%

expected 51.2%

Edge

−51.2 pp

over expectation

Graded

0-1

ROI

on 1 picks with odds

Average odds

1.86

singles with odds

Form

streak L1 · best W0, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF0-1 · 1 graded

−51.2

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap0-1 · 1 graded

−51.2

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even0-1 · 1 graded

−51.2

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).