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Sharp Bet System

@sharpbetsystem323 followersfirst pick 24 Octusually posts 3 h before start

Where bets are approved by data // Probability-based model 65%+ historical win rate // Expert Analysis only // Join our FREE telegram

NFL & NCAAFBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index46.6needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
44.4%
expected 51.8%
Edge
−7.3 pp
over expectation
Graded
9
4-5
ROI
-
on 4 picks with odds
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W3, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.8-0.5-0.300.323 Oct25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct29 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-3 · 7 graded
+4.9
57%
Basketball0-2 · 2 graded
−50.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap3-2 · 5 graded
+6.8
60%
Totals1-2 · 3 graded
−16.6
33%
Match result0-1 · 1 graded
−50.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+35.1
100%
Even2-5 · 7 graded
−19.5
29%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.291-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −7.3 pp
    4-5 · 44%

By league

  • NFL2-250%+1.5
  • NCAAF2-167%+9.4
  • NBA0-20%−50.1

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 22:19 · 4 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
87:103
LA Lakers
LA Clippers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 23:29 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
129:136
Portland Trail Blazers
Under 233.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:43 · 16 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
25:28
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets −2.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 14:46 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
16:10
Indianapolis Colts
Over 41.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 14:46 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
13:43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 44.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 12:52 · 37 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
10:16
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:10 · 7 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas State Bobcats
20:17
Utah State Aggies
Utah State Aggies +14
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:09 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio Bobcats
24:20
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan Eagles +10
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:08 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
27:49
Boston College Eagles
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets −6
Open on Xexpected 42% by model