The Pick Don

@thepickdon20.2K followers

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NFL & NCAAFBaseball

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Tipster index56.7#65 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

60.7%

expected 53.8%

Edge

+6.9 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 45.3%, the edge is within noise

Graded

17-11-1

ROI

−100.0%

on 1 picks with odds

Average odds

2.44

singles with odds

Form

streak W1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF12-7-1 · 20 graded

+8.0

63%

Baseball5-4 · 9 graded

+4.7

56%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap8-4-1 · 13 graded

+11.7

67%

Match result5-5 · 10 graded

−4.5

50%

Totals4-2 · 6 graded

+16.2

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

NFL10-5-167%+11.8
MLB · USA5-456%+4.7
NCAAF2-250%−6.3

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Picks

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:53

Won

MLB · post-season·7 Oct, 01:30

San Diego Padres

4:3

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:22

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Houston Texans

30:34

Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans to win

Singleposted 3 Oct, 16:03

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 20:15

South Carolina Gamecocks

34:35

Kentucky Wildcats

South Carolina Gamecocks to win

Singleposted 1 Oct, 18:59

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·2 Oct, 00:15

Cleveland Browns

27:24

Pittsburgh Steelers

Under 38.5

Singleposted 1 Oct, 00:30

Push

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 20:25

Seattle Seahawks

30:23

Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers +7

Singleposted 1 Oct, 00:30

Won

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14:17

Green Bay Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4

Singleposted 1 Oct, 00:30

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Houston Texans

30:34

Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans −2.5

Singleposted 30 Sept, 18:47

Lost

MLB · post-season·30 Sept, 21:00

Houston Astros

3:7

Chicago White Sox

Houston Astros to win

Singleposted 28 Sept, 21:36

Won

NFL · Regular Season·29 Sept, 00:15

Chicago Bears

27:7

Philadelphia Eagles

Chicago Bears +3.5

Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:22

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 20:15

Auburn Tigers

21:15

Vanderbilt Commodores

Auburn Tigers −9.5

Singleposted 24 Sept, 17:45

Won

NFL · Regular Season·25 Sept, 00:15

Green Bay Packers

14:35

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons +5.5

Singleposted 21 Sept, 18:24

Won

NFL · Regular Season·22 Sept, 00:15

Los Angeles Rams

28:6

New York Giants

Los Angeles Rams −6.5

Singleposted 20 Sept, 14:37

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·20 Sept, 17:00

Atlanta Falcons

3:34

Carolina Panthers

Atlanta Falcons +2.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 03:20

Lost

MLB·19 Sept, 23:05

Texas Rangers

6:2

Toronto Blue Jays

Under 7.5

Singleposted 18 Sept, 20:47

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:00

Auburn Tigers

39:44

Florida Gators

Florida Gators −2.5

Singleposted 17 Sept, 20:00

Won

NFL · Regular Season·18 Sept, 00:15

Buffalo Bills

41:31

Detroit Lions

Over 54.5

Singleposted 17 Sept, 16:20

Won

NFL · Regular Season·18 Sept, 00:15

Buffalo Bills

41:31

Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills to win

Singleposted 14 Sept, 21:11

Won

NFL · Regular Season·15 Sept, 00:15

Kansas City Chiefs

31:10

Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs to win

Singleposted 13 Sept, 15:47

Won

NFL · Regular Season·13 Sept, 20:25

Minnesota Vikings

39:22

Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings to win

Singleposted 10 Sept, 19:49

odds 2.44Lost

NFL · Regular Season·11 Sept, 00:35

Los Angeles Rams

7:27

San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Rams −2.44@2.44

Singleposted 9 Sept, 19:45

Won

NFL · Regular Season·10 Sept, 00:20

Seattle Seahawks

13:10

New England Patriots

New England Patriots +3.5

Singleposted 3 Sept, 19:17

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·4 Sept, 00:00

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

13:14

Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado Buffaloes +6.5

Singleposted 28 Aug, 18:23

Lost

MLB·29 Aug, 00:10

Minnesota Twins

4:7

Chicago White Sox

Minnesota Twins to win

Singleposted 28 Aug, 04:22

Won

NFL · Preseason·28 Aug, 23:30

New York Jets

6:23

New York Giants

New York Giants to win

Singleposted 25 Aug, 21:04

Won

MLB·25 Aug, 22:40

Detroit Tigers

4:1

Tampa Bay Rays

Detroit Tigers +1.5

Singleposted 10 Aug, 21:44

Won

MLB·11 Aug, 01:40

San Diego Padres

3:2

Milwaukee Brewers

Under 7

Singleposted 9 Aug, 17:10

Lost

MLB·9 Aug, 20:10

Seattle Mariners

1:4

Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle Mariners to win

Singleposted 6 Aug, 20:30

Won

MLB·6 Aug, 22:05

Philadelphia Phillies

7:3

Washington Nationals

Over 9

Singleposted 4 Aug, 22:59

Won

MLB·5 Aug, 01:40

Arizona Diamondbacks

4:9

San Diego Padres

Over 9