Napkin Picks

@emrldclay12 followers

NFL & NCAAFBaseballHockey

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Tipster index47.9#215 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 53.3%

Edge

−3.3 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 29.9%, the edge is within noise

Graded

7-7-2

ROI

posts no odds

Average odds

singles with odds

Form

streak L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-2-2 · 8 graded

+11.7

67%

Baseball2-5 · 7 graded

−22.9

29%

Hockey1-0 · 1 graded

+44.4

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-4 · 7 graded

−9.9

43%

Handicap4-2-1 · 7 graded

+11.7

67%

Totals0-1-1 · 2 graded

−46.7

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

MLB · USA2-529%−22.9
NFL2-1-267%+11.7
NCAAF2-167%+11.7
NHL1-0100%+44.4

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Picks

Singleposted 7 Oct, 19:30

Won

MLB · post-season·7 Oct, 20:00

Chicago White Sox

3:9

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 19:30

Won

MLB · post-season·7 Oct, 22:00

Atlanta Braves

1:4

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 19:30

Lost

MLB · post-season·8 Oct, 00:00

New York Yankees

3:4

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 19:30

Lost

MLB · post-season·8 Oct, 02:00

San Diego Padres

1:3

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres to win

Singleposted 5 Oct, 16:11

Won

NFL · Regular Season·6 Oct, 00:15

New Orleans Saints

24:45

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons +1.5

Singleposted 5 Oct, 16:11

Lost

MLB · post-season·5 Oct, 21:00

Cleveland Guardians

3:4

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 14:57

Push

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Baltimore Ravens

24:18

Tennessee Titans

Over 42

Singleposted 4 Oct, 14:57

Push

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 20:25

Seattle Seahawks

30:23

Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers +7

Singleposted 4 Oct, 14:57

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·5 Oct, 00:20

Carolina Panthers

32:26

Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions −4

Singleposted 3 Oct, 22:26

Lost

MLB · post-season·3 Oct, 22:30

Tampa Bay Rays

1:0

New York Yankees

New York Yankees to win

Singleposted 3 Oct, 22:26

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 23:30

Boise State Broncos

37:18

Utah State Aggies

Boise State Broncos −18.5

Singleposted 2 Oct, 23:58

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 00:00

Northwestern Wildcats

34:13

Penn State Nittany Lions

Northwestern Wildcats +3

Singleposted 2 Oct, 23:58

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·3 Oct, 00:00

Winnipeg Jets

3:4

Boston Bruins

Boston Bruins to win

Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:12

Won

NFL · Regular Season·2 Oct, 00:15

Cleveland Browns

27:24

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns +3

Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:12

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·2 Oct, 00:00

New Mexico State Aggies

34:13

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +2

Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:12

Lost

MLB · post-season·2 Oct, 00:00

Atlanta Braves

6:2

Philadelphia Phillies

Under 7.5