The Betting Model

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Daily Picks | Units Tracked. Built to beat the market. Full transparency.

BaseballNFL & NCAAF

CompareRSS

Tipster index48.7#161 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

56.5%

expected 58.1%

Edge

−1.5 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.8%, the edge is within noise

Graded

13-10

ROI

posts no odds

Average odds

singles with odds

Form

streak L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball11-6 · 17 graded

+5.6

65%

NFL & NCAAF2-4 · 6 graded

−21.8

33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result11-5 · 16 graded

+10.8

69%

Handicap2-5 · 7 graded

−29.6

29%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

MLB · USA11-665%+5.6
NCAAF2-433%−21.8

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Sept, 22:18

Lost

MLB·23 Sept, 23:40

Kansas City Royals

5:4

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox to win

Singleposted 23 Sept, 22:18

Lost

MLB·24 Sept, 02:00

Seattle Mariners

6:5

Houston Astros

Houston Astros to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Won

MLB·19 Sept, 20:05

Baltimore Orioles

0:1

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Won

MLB·19 Sept, 22:40

Cincinnati Reds

2:5

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Won

MLB·19 Sept, 23:05

Texas Rangers

6:2

Toronto Blue Jays

Texas Rangers to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Lost

MLB·19 Sept, 23:10

Houston Astros

3:6

Atlanta Braves

Houston Astros to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:10

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:00

Rice Owls

21:28

Western Michigan Broncos

Western Michigan Broncos −8.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:10

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:00

Auburn Tigers

39:44

Florida Gators

Auburn Tigers +2.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:10

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:30

Ole Miss Rebels

32:24

LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers −3

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:10

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:30

Maryland Terrapins

26:35

Virginia Tech Hokies

Virginia Tech Hokies −2.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:10

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 20:15

South Carolina Gamecocks

34:41

Mississippi State Bulldogs

South Carolina Gamecocks −3.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:10

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 16:00

Clemson Tigers

28:20

North Carolina Tar Heels

Clemson Tigers −3

Singleposted 18 Aug, 23:19

Won

MLB·18 Aug, 23:40

Kansas City Royals

4:3

Athletics

Kansas City Royals to win

Singleposted 18 Aug, 23:19

Won

MLB·18 Aug, 23:40

Milwaukee Brewers

22:0

Seattle Mariners

Milwaukee Brewers to win

Singleposted 18 Aug, 23:19

Lost

MLB·18 Aug, 23:40

Minnesota Twins

4:1

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves to win

Singleposted 17 Aug, 22:38

Won

MLB·17 Aug, 23:10

Boston Red Sox

11:1

Arizona Diamondbacks

Boston Red Sox to win

Singleposted 17 Aug, 22:38

Lost

MLB·18 Aug, 00:40

Colorado Rockies

5:11

Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies +2.5

Singleposted 12 Aug, 22:31

Won

MLB·12 Aug, 23:00

New York Yankees

10:5

Seattle Mariners

New York Yankees to win

Singleposted 12 Aug, 22:31

Won

MLB·12 Aug, 22:40

Miami Marlins

8:2

Pittsburgh Pirates

Miami Marlins to win

Singleposted 12 Aug, 17:44

Won

MLB·12 Aug, 20:10

San Diego Padres

4:3

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres to win

Singleposted 10 Aug, 22:29

Won

MLB·10 Aug, 23:40

Minnesota Twins

9:5

Baltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins to win

Singleposted 10 Aug, 22:29

Won

MLB·11 Aug, 01:40

San Diego Padres

3:2

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres to win

Singleposted 10 Aug, 22:29

Lost

MLB·10 Aug, 23:15

Atlanta Braves

5:8

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves to win