Los Picks del Profe

@Picks_del_profe31 followers

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BaseballFootballHockeyNFL & NCAAFBasketball

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Tipster index50.8#137 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

54.5%

expected 53.1%

Edge

+1.5 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 31.6%, the edge is within noise

Graded

6-5

ROI

−14.6%

on 10 picks with odds

Average odds

1.73

singles with odds

Form

streak W2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Football3-1 · 4 graded

+21.7

75%

Baseball1-3 · 4 graded

−27.8

25%

Basketball1-0 · 1 graded

+49.9

100%

Hockey1-0 · 1 graded

+40.5

100%

NFL & NCAAF0-1 · 1 graded

−49.4

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-2 · 5 graded

+5.2

60%

Parlays2-3 · 5 graded

−10.4

40%

Both teams to score1-0 · 1 graded

+42.6

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

MLB · USA1-325%−27.8
UEFA Nations League1-150%−3.0
NFL0-10%−49.4
Ligue 1 · France1-0100%+50.1
Primeira Liga · Portugal1-0100%+42.6
NHL1-0100%+40.5
LNBP · Mexico1-0100%+49.9

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Picks

Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:56

odds 1.60Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·1 Oct, 23:00

New Jersey Devils

3:2

Philadelphia Flyers

New Jersey Devils to win@1.60

Singleposted 30 Sept, 18:58

odds 1.66Won

MLB · post-season·1 Oct, 02:00

San Diego Padres

4:1

Chicago Cubs

San Diego Padres to win@1.66

Same-game combo · 2posted 27 Sept, 16:40

odds 1.76Lost

MLB·27 Sept, 19:07

Toronto Blue Jays

5:1

Cincinnati Reds

Over 7.5✕

MLB·27 Sept, 19:07

Toronto Blue Jays

5:1

Cincinnati Reds

Over 6.5✕

Same-game combo · 2posted 27 Sept, 16:37

odds 1.70Lost

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·27 Sept, 18:45

Norway

1:2

Portugal

Norway or draw✕

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·27 Sept, 18:45

Norway

1:2

Portugal

Ungraded market?

Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:01

odds 1.93Lost

NFL · Regular Season·25 Sept, 00:15

Green Bay Packers

14:35

Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers to win@1.93

Same-game combo · 2posted 24 Sept, 17:59

odds 1.72Won

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·24 Sept, 18:45

Netherlands

1:1

Germany

Both teams to score: yes✓

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·24 Sept, 18:45

Netherlands

1:1

Germany

Over 1.5✓

Same-game combo · 2posted 22 Sept, 21:49

odds 2.03Lost

MLB·22 Sept, 23:15

Atlanta Braves

0:4

Cincinnati Reds

Under 8.5✓

MLB·22 Sept, 23:15

Atlanta Braves

0:4

Cincinnati Reds

Atlanta Braves to win✕

Singleposted 22 Sept, 21:47

odds 1.65Lost

MLB·22 Sept, 22:40

Detroit Tigers

1:3

Washington Nationals

Detroit Tigers to win@1.65

Singleposted 21 Sept, 22:51

odds 1.90Won

Mexico · LNBP·22 Sept, 00:15

Correcaminos

52:93

Fuerza Regia de Monterrey

Fuerza Regia de Monterrey to win@1.90

Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:59

odds 1.66Won

Primeira Liga·20 Sept, 19:30

FC Porto

3:1

Benfica

Both teams to score: yes@1.66

Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Sept, 16:58

Won

Ligue 1·20 Sept, 18:45

Marseille

1:2

Paris Saint-Germain

Over 1.5✓

Ligue 1·20 Sept, 18:45

Marseille

1:2

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain to win✓