El MR 🦇 (Apuestas)

@PICKSDEMR139 followers

BaseballFootballNFL & NCAAFHockey

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Tipster index56.5#68 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

54.2%

expected 46.9%

Edge

+7.3 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 37.9%, the edge is within noise

Graded

13-11

ROI

−5.5%

on 21 picks with odds

Average odds

1.80

singles with odds

Form

streak L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball8-3 · 11 graded

+21.2

73%

Football2-5 · 7 graded

−14.6

29%

NFL & NCAAF1-3 · 4 graded

−11.8

25%

Hockey2-0 · 2 graded

+45.8

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays3-8 · 11 graded

−13.2

27%

Match result5-3 · 8 graded

+9.7

63%

Totals4-0 · 4 graded

+50.1

100%

Handicap1-0 · 1 graded

+41.4

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

MLB · USA8-280%+27.0
NFL1-325%−11.8
UEFA Nations League2-167%+20.0
NHL2-0100%+45.8
International Friendlies0-20%−43.8
Liga MX · Mexico0-20%−37.5

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Picks

Parlay · 3posted 7 Oct, 00:22

odds 2.32Lost

MLB · post-season·7 Oct, 01:30

San Diego Padres

4:3

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres +1.5✓

MLB · post-season·7 Oct, 01:30

San Diego Padres

4:3

Milwaukee Brewers

Over 5.5✓

NHL · NHL: Regular season·7 Oct, 02:00

Los Angeles Kings

1:2

Florida Panthers

Over 3.5✕

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:15

odds 2.04Won

NFL · Regular Season·6 Oct, 00:15

New Orleans Saints

24:45

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons to win@2.04

Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:22

odds 1.83Lost

MLB · post-season·6 Oct, 00:00

Tampa Bay Rays

5:2

New York Yankees

New York Yankees to win@1.83

Same-game combo · 2posted 5 Oct, 20:57

odds 1.77Won

MLB · post-season·5 Oct, 21:00

Cleveland Guardians

3:4

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians +1.5@1.77✓

MLB · post-season·5 Oct, 21:00

Cleveland Guardians

3:4

Chicago White Sox

Over 4.5@1.77✓

Singleposted 4 Oct, 09:03

odds 1.71Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·5 Oct, 00:00

Seattle Kraken

6:1

Calgary Flames

Seattle Kraken to win@1.71

Singleposted 4 Oct, 09:01

odds 1.80Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·4 Oct, 22:00

New York Rangers

4:2

Utah Mammoth

Over 5.5@1.80

Singleposted 4 Oct, 08:59

odds 1.81Lost

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·4 Oct, 18:45

Greece

0:0

Germany

Germany to win@1.81

Singleposted 4 Oct, 08:57

Won

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·4 Oct, 18:45

Wales

0:1

Denmark

Under 2

Parlay · 2posted 4 Oct, 08:54

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

New York Giants

36:24

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals to win✕

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

New York Giants

36:24

Arizona Cardinals

Ungraded market?

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 08:49

odds 1.63Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 13:30

Washington Commanders

13:30

Indianapolis Colts

Washington Commanders +15.5@1.63✕

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 13:30

Washington Commanders

13:30

Indianapolis Colts

Over 38.5@1.63✓

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 08:44

odds 2.05Won

MLB · post-season·4 Oct, 20:00

Milwaukee Brewers

4:3

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres +2.5@2.05✓

MLB · post-season·4 Oct, 20:00

Milwaukee Brewers

4:3

San Diego Padres

Over 5.5@2.05✓

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 08:43

odds 1.84Won

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·4 Oct, 18:45

Portugal

2:1

Norway

Both teams to score: yes@1.84✓

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·4 Oct, 18:45

Portugal

2:1

Norway

Under 5.5@1.84✓

Parlay · 3posted 3 Oct, 19:31

odds 2.10Lost

International Friendlies · Friendlies·4 Oct, 00:00

Argentina

7:0

Burkina Faso

Both teams to score: yes✕

International Friendlies · Friendlies·4 Oct, 00:00

Argentina

7:0

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso +2.5✕

International Friendlies · Friendlies·4 Oct, 00:00

Argentina

7:0

Burkina Faso

Ungraded market?

Singleposted 3 Oct, 19:26

odds 1.63Won

MLB · post-season·3 Oct, 20:00

Los Angeles Dodgers

5:3

Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers −1@1.63

Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:15

Won

MLB · post-season·3 Oct, 22:30

Tampa Bay Rays

1:0

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays to win

Singleposted 1 Oct, 23:20

odds 1.91Lost

MLB · post-season·2 Oct, 00:00

Atlanta Braves

6:2

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.91

Singleposted 30 Sept, 21:38

odds 1.80Won

MLB · post-season·1 Oct, 00:00

New York Yankees

9:2

Boston Red Sox

Over 6.5@1.80

Singleposted 30 Sept, 21:34

odds 1.67Won

MLB · post-season·1 Oct, 02:00

San Diego Padres

4:1

Chicago Cubs

San Diego Padres to win@1.67

Same-game combo · 2posted 29 Sept, 18:41

odds 1.95Lost

International Friendlies · Friendlies·30 Sept, 01:00

Mexico

1:1

Peru

Over 1.5@1.95✓

International Friendlies · Friendlies·30 Sept, 01:00

Mexico

1:1

Peru

Mexico to win@1.95✕

Same-game combo · 3posted 27 Sept, 22:01

odds 3.15Lost

NFL · Regular Season·28 Sept, 00:20

Denver Broncos

30:26

Los Angeles Rams

Denver Broncos +10.5✓

NFL · Regular Season·28 Sept, 00:20

Denver Broncos

30:26

Los Angeles Rams

Denver Broncos +1.5✓

NFL · Regular Season·28 Sept, 00:20

Denver Broncos

30:26

Los Angeles Rams

Under 51.5✕

Same-game combo · 2posted 27 Sept, 22:00

odds 3.10Lost

Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·28 Sept, 03:10

Necaxa

2:4

CF America

Under 3.5✕

Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·28 Sept, 03:10

Necaxa

2:4

CF America

CF America to win✓

Singleposted 27 Sept, 18:55

odds 1.71Won

MLB·27 Sept, 19:10

Miami Marlins

5:3

Atlanta Braves

Over 7.5@1.71

Singleposted 27 Sept, 01:09

odds 1.83Won

MLB·27 Sept, 01:40

Athletics

2:13

Houston Astros

Houston Astros to win@1.83

Same-game combo · 3posted 25 Sept, 22:36

odds 1.89Lost

Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·26 Sept, 01:00

Atlante

4:2

Monterrey

Monterrey +0.5✕

Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·26 Sept, 01:00

Atlante

4:2

Monterrey

Under 4.5✕

Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·26 Sept, 01:00

Atlante

4:2

Monterrey

Ungraded market@1.89?