Nate's Algo Picks

@NateAlgoPicks35.6K followers

Data engineer using algorithms to win sports bets | +177u 2025

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockey

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Tipster index47.3#185 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 52.5%

Edge

−2.5 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 36.5%, the edge is within noise

Graded

17-17

ROI

−14.3%

on 25 picks with odds

Average odds

1.77

singles with odds

Form

streak L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball14-12 · 26 graded

+0.2

54%

NFL & NCAAF2-2 · 4 graded

+3.5

50%

Hockey1-3 · 4 graded

−25.9

25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result14-13 · 27 graded

−3.6

52%

Parlays1-3 · 4 graded

−4.6

25%

Handicap1-1 · 2 graded

−5.1

50%

Totals1-0 · 1 graded

+40.5

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

MLB · USA13-1154%−2.1
NHL1-325%−25.9
NFL1-150%−5.1
NCAAF1-0100%+40.5

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Picks

Parlay · 4posted 4 Oct, 13:49

odds 5.41Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

New York Giants

36:24

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals to win@1.73✕

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Chicago Bears

23:12

New York Jets

Chicago Bears to win@1.54✓

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Cincinnati Bengals

17:22

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.70✕

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 20:05

Minnesota Vikings

15:10

Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings to win@1.19✓

Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:08

odds 1.65Lost

MLB · post-season·3 Oct, 17:00

Cleveland Guardians

0:3

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians to win@1.65

Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:08

odds 1.44Won

MLB · post-season·3 Oct, 20:00

Los Angeles Dodgers

5:3

Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.44

Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:08

odds 2.14Lost

MLB · post-season·3 Oct, 22:30

Tampa Bay Rays

1:0

New York Yankees

New York Yankees to win@2.14

Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:08

odds 1.47Won

MLB · post-season·4 Oct, 00:30

Milwaukee Brewers

3:2

San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.47

Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:55

odds 1.96Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·29 Sept, 21:00

Carolina Hurricanes

0:1

Florida Panthers

Carolina Hurricanes to win@1.96

Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:55

odds 2.14Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·29 Sept, 23:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

2:3

Montreal Canadiens

Toronto Maple Leafs to win@2.14

Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:55

odds 2.09Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·30 Sept, 00:00

Boston Bruins

3:0

New York Rangers

Boston Bruins to win@2.09

Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:55

odds 1.46Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·30 Sept, 02:00

Edmonton Oilers

5:6

Vancouver Canucks

Edmonton Oilers to win@1.46

Parlay · 2posted 29 Sept, 14:34

odds 3.10Won

MLB · post-season·30 Sept, 00:00

New York Yankees

9:0

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees to win@1.73✓

MLB · post-season·30 Sept, 02:00

San Diego Padres

8:0

Chicago Cubs

San Diego Padres to win@1.79✓

Singleposted 29 Aug, 20:15

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·29 Aug, 22:30

Eastern Michigan Eagles

28:17

Sacramento State Hornets

Under 53.5

Parlay · 3posted 26 Aug, 17:18

odds 5.65Lost

MLB·26 Aug, 22:45

Washington Nationals

1:13

Colorado Rockies

Washington Nationals to win@1.82✕

MLB·26 Aug, 23:07

Toronto Blue Jays

3:0

Kansas City Royals

Toronto Blue Jays to win@1.69✓

MLB·26 Aug, 23:40

Chicago White Sox

10:4

Texas Rangers

Chicago White Sox to win@1.83✓

Singleposted 21 Aug, 14:26

odds 1.46Won

MLB·22 Aug, 02:10

Los Angeles Dodgers

5:4

Pittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.46

Singleposted 21 Aug, 14:26

odds 1.95Won

MLB·22 Aug, 02:10

Seattle Mariners

6:5

Chicago Cubs

Seattle Mariners to win@1.95

Singleposted 21 Aug, 14:26

odds 1.67Won

MLB·22 Aug, 00:40

Colorado Rockies

1:9

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians to win@1.67

Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Aug, 15:48

odds 1.57Lost

MLB·21 Aug, 00:10

Houston Astros

3:18

Los Angeles Angels

Under 7.5✕

MLB·21 Aug, 00:10

Houston Astros

3:18

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros to win@1.57✕

Singleposted 20 Aug, 15:48

odds 1.83Won

MLB·20 Aug, 22:35

Baltimore Orioles

1:6

New York Yankees

New York Yankees to win@1.83

Singleposted 14 Aug, 19:52

Lost

NFL · Preseason·14 Aug, 23:00

Atlanta Falcons

7:27

Denver Broncos

Atlanta Falcons +3.5

Singleposted 14 Aug, 19:52

Won

NFL · Preseason·14 Aug, 23:00

New York Jets

16:24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5

Singleposted 6 Aug, 18:47

odds 1.35Won

MLB·6 Aug, 22:05

Philadelphia Phillies

7:3

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.35

Singleposted 6 Aug, 18:47

odds 1.62Won

MLB·6 Aug, 23:10

Boston Red Sox

12:11

Chicago White Sox

Boston Red Sox to win@1.62

Singleposted 6 Aug, 18:47

odds 1.77Won

MLB·6 Aug, 23:15

Atlanta Braves

11:3

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves to win@1.77

Singleposted 6 Aug, 18:47

odds 1.91Lost

MLB·6 Aug, 23:30

Kansas City Royals

3:4

Minnesota Twins

Kansas City Royals to win@1.91

Singleposted 6 Aug, 18:47

odds 2.04Lost

MLB·7 Aug, 01:40

Arizona Diamondbacks

1:5

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks to win@2.04

Singleposted 5 Aug, 15:31

odds 1.65Lost

MLB·5 Aug, 23:05

New York Yankees

1:3

St. Louis Cardinals

New York Yankees to win@1.65

Singleposted 5 Aug, 15:31

odds 2.14Lost

MLB·5 Aug, 23:15

Atlanta Braves

4:1

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins to win@2.14

Singleposted 5 Aug, 15:31

odds 1.68Won

MLB·6 Aug, 01:40

Seattle Mariners

4:2

Detroit Tigers

Seattle Mariners to win@1.68

Singleposted 5 Aug, 15:31

odds 1.85Lost

MLB·6 Aug, 01:40

Arizona Diamondbacks

10:4

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres to win@1.85

Singleposted 3 Aug, 20:12

Lost

MLB·4 Aug, 00:00

Texas Rangers

1:5

San Francisco Giants

Texas Rangers to win

Singleposted 3 Aug, 20:12

Lost

MLB·4 Aug, 00:10

Houston Astros

1:3

Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros to win