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MercenaryBets

@MercenaryBets8.8K followers

I bought a new car by sports betting. We focus on high value bets where WE have the edge; a Mercenary Bet. I tweet my tickets. Spreadsheet in bio

BaseballNFL & NCAAF
Tipster index56.4#81 on the leaderboard
Hit rate
53.3%
expected 43.7%
Edge
+9.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 33.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
16
8-7-1
ROI
+92.6%
on 1 picks with odds
Average odds
1.93
singles with odds
Form
streak L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.511.524 Sept28 Sept1 Oct4 Oct8 Oct

By sport

Baseball4-7-1 · 12 graded
−3.8
36%
NFL & NCAAF4-0 · 4 graded
+46.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals4-7-1 · 12 graded
−3.8
36%
Handicap3-0 · 3 graded
+45.1
100%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+50.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 7 Oct, 23:28
Push
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 7
Singleposted 7 Oct, 17:52
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
3:9
Cleveland Guardians
Under 8
Singleposted 6 Oct, 21:14
Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:21
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Under 6.5
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:05
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
23:12
New York Jets
Chicago Bears −3.5
Singleposted 3 Oct, 22:31
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas A&M Aggies
34:7
Arkansas Razorbacks
Texas A&M Aggies −13.5
Singleposted 1 Oct, 22:03
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Under 7.5
Singleposted 30 Sept, 23:58
Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:1
Chicago Cubs
Under 7.5
Singleposted 29 Sept, 23:06
Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:0
Boston Red Sox
Under 6
Singleposted 27 Sept, 23:58
odds 1.93Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos to win@1.93
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:08
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:24
New York Jets
Detroit Lions −6.5
Singleposted 27 Sept, 01:14
Lost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
8:4
Los Angeles Angels
Under 7.5
Singleposted 26 Sept, 01:24
Lost
MLB·
San Diego Padres
4:11
Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 7.5
Singleposted 25 Sept, 22:13
Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
0:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 6.5
Singleposted 25 Sept, 19:36
Lost
MLB·
New York Yankees
2:10
Baltimore Orioles
Under 6.5
Singleposted 25 Sept, 17:07
Won
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
2:0
Chicago Cubs
Under 6.5