Matt MacKay

@Matt_MacKay_1.1K followers

NFL & NCAAFHockeyFootball

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Tipster index25.2#279 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

28.0%

expected 55.2%

Edge

−27.2 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 16.0%, the edge is within noise

Graded

7-18

ROI

−100.0%

on 2 picks with odds

Average odds

2.38

singles with odds

Form

streak L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF7-11 · 18 graded

−18.2

39%

Hockey0-6 · 6 graded

−49.0

Football0-1 · 1 graded

−58.7

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap5-5 · 10 graded

−5.1

50%

Totals2-7 · 9 graded

−35.7

22%

Match result0-6 · 6 graded

−51.4

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

NCAAF5-645%−11.3
NFL2-529%−29.1
NHL0-60%−49.0
MLS Next Pro · USA0-10%−58.7

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Picks

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:52

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:00

Detroit Red Wings

5:3

Ottawa Senators

Under 6.5

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:52

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:00

New Jersey Devils

3:5

Utah Mammoth

New Jersey Devils to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:52

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:00

Montreal Canadiens

4:6

Carolina Hurricanes

Under 6.5

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:52

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:00

Buffalo Sabres

3:2

Minnesota Wild

Minnesota Wild to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:52

odds 2.30Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:30

New York Rangers

5:2

New York Islanders

New York Islanders to win@2.30

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:52

odds 2.45Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·7 Oct, 01:40

Seattle Kraken

2:6

Vegas Golden Knights

Seattle Kraken to win@2.45

Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:59

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

New York Giants

36:24

Arizona Cardinals

Under 44.5

Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:59

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14:17

Green Bay Packers

Over 39.5

Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:59

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Baltimore Ravens

24:18

Tennessee Titans

Over 42.5

Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:59

Won

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Chicago Bears

23:12

New York Jets

Chicago Bears −3.5

Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:59

Won

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Buffalo Bills

26:29

New England Patriots

New England Patriots +7

Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:29

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 16:00

North Carolina Tar Heels

26:37

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame Fighting Irish −21.5

Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:29

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 16:00

Mississippi State Bulldogs

23:56

Alabama Crimson Tide

Mississippi State Bulldogs +6

Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:29

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 19:30

Iowa Hawkeyes

14:31

Ohio State Buckeyes

Under 45.5

Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:29

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 23:30

Clemson Tigers

13:41

Miami Hurricanes

Clemson Tigers +16.5

Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:29

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 20:15

South Carolina Gamecocks

34:35

Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky Wildcats +3

Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:32

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·27 Sept, 17:00

New York Giants

12:7

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans +2.5

Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:32

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·27 Sept, 20:25

New Orleans Saints

27:35

Las Vegas Raiders

Under 43.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 19:30

Louisville Cardinals

41:31

SMU Mustangs

SMU Mustangs +1.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 16:00

Clemson Tigers

28:20

North Carolina Tar Heels

Under 43.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Lost

USA · MLS Next Pro·20 Sept, 21:00

Colorado Rapids II

2:1

North Texas SC

North Texas SC to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 19:30

Utah Utes

33:0

Utah State Aggies

Utah Utes −27.5

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:30

Ole Miss Rebels

32:24

LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:38

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 23:30

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

27:10

Michigan State Spartans

Under 51.5

Singleposted 5 Sept, 13:09

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·5 Sept, 19:30

Oregon Ducks

34:27

Boise State Broncos

Boise State Broncos +24.5