MachsLocks

@MachsLocks346 followers

Quantitative edge. Documented results. Current Record: +50.33U - 67–29 (69.8%) NFL · NBA · MLB · Tennis

TennisBaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyFootball

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Tipster index72.3#5 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

68.7%

expected 53.5%

Edge

+15.2 pp

hit rate at least 59.9% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck

Graded

57-26

ROI

+22.7%

on 81 picks with odds

Average odds

1.83

singles with odds

Form

streak W1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis44-23 · 67 graded

+11.9

66%

Baseball4-2 · 6 graded

+15.5

67%

NFL & NCAAF5-0 · 5 graded

+48.4

100%

Hockey3-1 · 4 graded

+19.4

75%

Football1-0 · 1 graded

+47.7

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result38-23 · 61 graded

+9.5

62%

Handicap14-2 · 16 graded

+31.4

88%

Totals5-1 · 6 graded

+29.9

83%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

ATP 100014-478%+21.1
ATP Challenger11-761%+6.9
ATP 25011-761%+9.5
MLB · USA4-267%+15.5
ATP 5004-267%+15.5
NFL5-0100%+48.4
WTA 10003-175%+21.4
NHL3-175%+19.4
Davis Cup0-20%−56.2
ATP team tournaments1-0100%+57.7

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Picks

Singleposted 7 Oct, 16:04

odds 1.68Won

ATP Challenger · Braga, Portugal·7 Oct, 17:25

Mackenzie McDonald

1:2

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win@1.68

Singleposted 7 Oct, 12:51

odds 2.05Void

ATP Challenger · Antofagasta, Chile·7 Oct, 18:10

Joao Lucas Da Silva

void

Guido Justo

Guido Justo to win@2.05

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:25

odds 1.63Won

ATP Challenger · Wuning 3, China·7 Oct, 03:05

Yaroslav Demin

0:2

Akira Santillan

Akira Santillan to win@1.63

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:22

odds 1.95Won

ATP Challenger · Wuning 3, China·7 Oct, 03:05

Hiroki Moriya

0:2

Keisuke Saitoh

Keisuke Saitoh to win@1.95

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:21

odds 1.83Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 10:05

Yibing Wu

2:0

Michael Zheng

Yibing Wu to win@1.83

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:20

odds 1.75Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 08:55

Quentin Halys

2:0

Chak Wong

Quentin Halys to win@1.75

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:19

odds 1.87Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 10:05

Mattia Bellucci

1:2

Yi Zhou

Mattia Bellucci −1.5 sets@1.87

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:19

odds 1.60Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 06:10

Alex Molcan

2:1

Federico Cina

Alex Molcan to win@1.60

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:18

odds 1.87Void

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 05:40

Adrian Mannarino

void

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@1.87

Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:17

odds 1.59Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 04:10

Arthur Gea

2:1

Jaime Faria

Arthur Gea to win@1.59

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:38

odds 1.68Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:00

New Jersey Devils

3:5

Utah Mammoth

Over 5.5@1.68

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:37

odds 1.67Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·7 Oct, 01:40

Seattle Kraken

2:6

Vegas Golden Knights

Over 5.5@1.67

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:36

odds 1.68Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·7 Oct, 00:00

Chicago Blackhawks

4:2

St. Louis Blues

St. Louis Blues to win@1.68

Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:35

odds 1.83Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:00

Montreal Canadiens

4:6

Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina Hurricanes to win@1.83

Singleposted 6 Oct, 14:14

odds 1.56Lost

ATP Challenger · Villena, Spain·7 Oct, 10:40

Dominic Stricker

0:2

Laslo Djere

Dominic Stricker to win@1.56

Singleposted 6 Oct, 14:13

odds 1.82Lost

ATP Challenger · Villena, Spain·6 Oct, 17:40

August Holmgren

1:2

Pedro Martinez

August Holmgren to win@1.82

Singleposted 6 Oct, 14:11

odds 1.65Lost

ATP Challenger · Villena, Spain·7 Oct, 12:30

Philip Henning

2:0

Maks Kasnikowski

Maks Kasnikowski to win@1.65

Singleposted 6 Oct, 14:10

odds 1.81Lost

ATP Challenger · Antofagasta, Chile·6 Oct, 16:50

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves

2:0

Juan Pablo Varillas

Juan Pablo Varillas to win@1.81

Singleposted 6 Oct, 14:09

odds 1.82Won

ATP Challenger · Antofagasta, Chile·6 Oct, 15:30

Juan Bautista Torres

0:2

Pedro Boscardin Dias

Pedro Boscardin Dias to win@1.82

Singleposted 6 Oct, 14:07

odds 1.73Won

ATP Challenger · Antofagasta, Chile·6 Oct, 14:50

Alex Barrena

0:2

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida to win@1.73

Singleposted 6 Oct, 04:00

odds 1.60Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·6 Oct, 09:15

Carlos Alcaraz

2:0

Jiri Lehecka

Jiri Lehecka +4.5@1.60

Singleposted 6 Oct, 04:00

odds 4.00Lost

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·6 Oct, 09:15

Carlos Alcaraz

2:0

Jiri Lehecka

Jiri Lehecka to win@4.00

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:50

odds 1.64Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 10:20

Pavel Kotov

2:0

Aleksandar Vukic

Pavel Kotov to win@1.64

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:49

odds 1.75Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 04:10

Bernard Tomic

2:0

Timofey Skatov

Bernard Tomic to win@1.75

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:48

odds 1.69Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 04:10

Liam Draxl

1:2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@1.69

Singleposted 1 Oct, 02:13

odds 1.89Won

ATP Challenger · Jingshan, China·1 Oct, 03:10

Adam Walton

0:2

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win@1.89

Singleposted 1 Oct, 02:11

odds 1.68Won

ATP 500 · China Open·1 Oct, 04:45

Botic van de Zandschulp

1:2

Francisco Cerundolo

Francisco Cerundolo to win@1.68

Singleposted 1 Oct, 02:03

odds 1.80Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·1 Oct, 02:10

Brandon Nakashima

0:2

Ugo Humbert

Ugo Humbert +3.5@1.80

Singleposted 29 Sept, 04:43

odds 1.50Won

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·29 Sept, 11:40

Daniil Medvedev

2:0

Andrey Rublev

Daniil Medvedev to win@1.50

Singleposted 29 Sept, 04:35

odds 1.67Lost

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·29 Sept, 11:10

Hubert Hurkacz

0:2

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Hubert Hurkacz to win@1.67