LlamaPicks

@LlamaPicksAI131 followers

AI sports modeling lab. CBB | NBA | MLB | NHL | NFL 🦙

BaseballFootball

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Tipster index50.9#132 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

52.9%

expected 52.1%

Edge

+0.9 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.2%, the edge is within noise

Graded

18-16

ROI

+1.8%

on 20 picks with odds

Average odds

2.10

singles with odds

Form

streak L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball18-15 · 33 graded

+1.3

55%

Football0-1 · 1 graded

−13.6

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result18-13 · 31 graded

+5.4

58%

Totals0-2 · 2 graded

−43.0

Parlays0-1 · 1 graded

−52.6

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

MLB · USA18-1555%+1.3
Premier League · England0-10%−13.6

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Picks

Singleposted 5 Oct, 18:18

Lost

MLB · post-season·5 Oct, 21:00

Cleveland Guardians

3:4

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians to win

Singleposted 23 Sept, 21:15

Lost

MLB·24 Sept, 00:05

Texas Rangers

2:7

New York Mets

Texas Rangers to win

Singleposted 23 Sept, 12:50

odds 1.93Won

MLB·24 Sept, 01:40

Athletics

7:3

Los Angeles Angels

Athletics to win@1.93

Singleposted 22 Sept, 12:51

odds 1.66Lost

MLB·22 Sept, 22:40

Detroit Tigers

1:3

Washington Nationals

Detroit Tigers to win@1.66

Singleposted 21 Sept, 19:48

Won

MLB·21 Sept, 22:40

Detroit Tigers

9:2

Washington Nationals

Detroit Tigers to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 12:50

odds 1.85Won

MLB·19 Sept, 20:10

New York Mets

10:3

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets to win@1.85

Singleposted 18 Sept, 20:30

Won

MLB·18 Sept, 23:10

New York Mets

6:3

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets to win

Singleposted 17 Sept, 16:15

Won

MLB·17 Sept, 19:10

Colorado Rockies

2:9

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres to win

Singleposted 16 Sept, 12:50

odds 1.77Won

MLB·16 Sept, 17:00

Cleveland Guardians

6:3

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians to win@1.77

Singleposted 14 Sept, 12:52

odds 1.68Lost

MLB·14 Sept, 23:07

Toronto Blue Jays

5:6

Detroit Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays to win@1.68

Singleposted 13 Sept, 12:50

odds 1.86Won

MLB·13 Sept, 17:35

Washington Nationals

6:5

Los Angeles Angels

Washington Nationals to win@1.86

Singleposted 12 Sept, 16:15

Won

MLB·12 Sept, 19:07

Toronto Blue Jays

7:3

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays to win

Singleposted 12 Sept, 12:50

odds 1.73Lost

MLB·12 Sept, 17:35

New York Yankees

2:12

New York Mets

New York Yankees to win@1.73

Singleposted 11 Sept, 20:15

Won

MLB·11 Sept, 23:05

New York Yankees

6:4

New York Mets

New York Yankees to win

Singleposted 10 Sept, 23:15

Lost

MLB·10 Sept, 23:40

Chicago White Sox

0:2

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago White Sox to win

Singleposted 7 Sept, 14:18

Lost

MLB·7 Sept, 17:10

Miami Marlins

4:9

New York Mets

Miami Marlins to win

Singleposted 7 Sept, 12:50

odds 1.94Won

MLB·7 Sept, 18:10

Kansas City Royals

4:5

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks to win@1.94

Singleposted 6 Sept, 15:15

Won

MLB·6 Sept, 18:10

Houston Astros

2:3

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks to win

Singleposted 4 Sept, 12:50

odds 1.94Lost

MLB·5 Sept, 00:10

Kansas City Royals

2:9

Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals to win@1.94

Singleposted 2 Sept, 23:15

Lost

MLB·2 Sept, 23:40

Kansas City Royals

6:9

Miami Marlins

Kansas City Royals to win

Singleposted 30 Aug, 17:15

Lost

MLB·30 Aug, 20:07

Los Angeles Angels

2:5

Philadelphia Phillies

Over 10.5

Singleposted 27 Aug, 12:50

odds 1.79Lost

MLB·27 Aug, 23:05

New York Yankees

1:5

Houston Astros

New York Yankees to win@1.79

Singleposted 23 Aug, 14:50

odds 1.88Won

MLB·23 Aug, 17:35

Philadelphia Phillies

6:4

St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.88

Singleposted 21 Aug, 17:16

odds 7.00Lost

Premier League·21 Aug, 19:00

Arsenal

3:0

Coventry City

Draw@7.00

Singleposted 21 Aug, 12:50

odds 1.81Won

MLB·21 Aug, 20:10

Milwaukee Brewers

2:1

Atlanta Braves

Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.81

Singleposted 19 Aug, 18:13

Lost

MLB·19 Aug, 20:10

Boston Red Sox

6:7

Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 8

Singleposted 12 Aug, 12:51

odds 1.79Won

MLB·12 Aug, 23:00

New York Yankees

10:5

Seattle Mariners

New York Yankees to win@1.79

Singleposted 12 Aug, 12:50

odds 1.83Lost

MLB·12 Aug, 22:40

Detroit Tigers

4:6

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers to win@1.83

Singleposted 9 Aug, 12:50

odds 1.96Won

MLB·9 Aug, 20:05

San Francisco Giants

1:3

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers to win@1.96

Same-game combo · 2posted 6 Aug, 14:01

odds 1.73Lost

MLB·6 Aug, 16:40

Cincinnati Reds

6:5

Athletics

Under 5.5@1.73✕

MLB·6 Aug, 16:40

Cincinnati Reds

6:5

Athletics

Cincinnati Reds to win✓