Hold Or Fold

@HoldOrFoldEV1.8K followers

At the end of the day if I make 20% ROI per year, that's enough for me.

Tennis

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Tipster index47.4#184 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 54.5%

Edge

−4.5 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 28.6%, the edge is within noise

Graded

6-6

ROI

−15.0%

on 10 picks with odds

Average odds

1.72

singles with odds

Form

streak W4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis6-6 · 12 graded

−4.5

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result5-5 · 10 graded

−4.8

50%

Totals1-1 · 2 graded

−3.1

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

ATP 5004-267%+11.6
WTA 10002-340%−13.1
ATP Challenger0-10%−58.4

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Picks

Singleposted 2 Oct, 08:40

odds 1.64Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·2 Oct, 09:35

Nikola Bartunkova

2:0

Magdalena Frech

Nikola Bartunkova to win@1.64

Singleposted 2 Oct, 08:07

Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·2 Oct, 09:50

Arthur Fils

2:0

Frances Tiafoe

Arthur Fils to win

Singleposted 2 Oct, 06:50

odds 1.68Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·2 Oct, 07:20

Clara Tauson

1:2

Polina Kudermetova

Over 20.5 games@1.68

Singleposted 2 Oct, 06:50

Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·2 Oct, 07:20

Clara Tauson

1:2

Polina Kudermetova

Clara Tauson to win

Singleposted 2 Oct, 06:02

odds 2.12Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·2 Oct, 08:00

Kyrian Jacquet

2:0

Luciano Darderi

Kyrian Jacquet to win@2.12

Singleposted 2 Oct, 02:04

odds 1.63Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·2 Oct, 03:05

Viktorija Golubic

2:1

Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns to win@1.63

Singleposted 1 Oct, 18:19

odds 1.63Lost

ATP Challenger · Curitiba, Brazil·1 Oct, 18:45

Mateus Cardoso Alves

0:2

Gonzalo Villanueva

Mateus Cardoso Alves to win@1.63

Singleposted 1 Oct, 10:08

odds 1.50Won

ATP 500 · China Open·1 Oct, 11:30

Learner Tien

1:2

Hubert Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz to win@1.50

Singleposted 1 Oct, 09:20

odds 1.65Lost

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·1 Oct, 09:30

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1:2

Matteo Berrettini

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@1.65

Singleposted 1 Oct, 08:36

odds 1.86Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·1 Oct, 10:55

Lanlana Tararudee

0:2

Maria Osorio

Lanlana Tararudee to win@1.86

Singleposted 1 Oct, 08:02

odds 1.56Won

ATP 500 · China Open·1 Oct, 09:25

Tallon Griekspoor

1:2

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev to win@1.56

Singleposted 1 Oct, 05:44

odds 1.92Lost

ATP 500 · China Open·1 Oct, 06:15

Roman Safiullin

2:0

Flavio Cobolli

Over 23 games@1.92