Adams Smith

@AdamsSmith7w537 followers

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BaseballTennisNFL & NCAAFFootballHockeyBasketball

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Tipster index54.4#92 on the leaderboard

Hit rate

58.0%

expected 55.7%

Edge

+2.3 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 55.2%, the edge is within noise

Graded

835

483-350-2

ROI

−9.8%

on 209 picks with odds

Average odds

1.68

singles with odds

Form

streak W1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball236-166-1 · 403 graded

+3.4

59%

Tennis163-126-1 · 290 graded

−0.3

56%

NFL & NCAAF55-42 · 97 graded

+5.2

57%

Football20-11 · 31 graded

+3.0

65%

Hockey9-4 · 13 graded

+6.7

69%

Basketball0-1 · 1 graded

−42.9

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result407-270-1 · 678 graded

+2.2

60%

Handicap43-22 · 65 graded

+7.8

66%

Totals31-19-1 · 51 graded

−2.3

62%

Parlays2-39 · 41 graded

+0.3

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By league

MLB · USA234-145-162%+3.3
US Open50-2666%+7.1
NFL31-2357%+0.1
ATP 100022-25-147%−7.4
WTA 100030-1567%+8.6
NCAAF24-1071%+15.5
ATP Challenger17-1455%−3.5
ATP 25010-1638%−22.3
ATP 50011-955%−4.7
NHL9-469%+6.7

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Picks

Singleposted 7 Oct, 00:58

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 06:45

Zhizhen Zhang

1:2

Tomas Machac

Zhizhen Zhang to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 00:58

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 04:10

Sho Shimabukuro

0:2

Miomir Kecmanovic

Sho Shimabukuro to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 00:58

Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 04:10

Arthur Gea

2:1

Jaime Faria

Arthur Gea to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 00:10

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·7 Oct, 01:40

Seattle Kraken

2:6

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 00:10

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·7 Oct, 02:00

Los Angeles Kings

1:2

Florida Panthers

Florida Panthers to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 00:10

Won

ATP Challenger · Antofagasta, Chile·7 Oct, 14:10

Thiago Seyboth Wild

2:0

Murkel Dellien

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 04:10

Sho Shimabukuro

0:2

Miomir Kecmanovic

Miomir Kecmanovic to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 04:10

Aleksandar Kovacevic

1:2

Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Void

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 05:40

Adrian Mannarino

void

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Adrian Mannarino to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 06:35

Yannick Hanfmann

2:1

Kamil Majchrzak

Kamil Majchrzak to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 06:45

Zhizhen Zhang

1:2

Tomas Machac

Tomas Machac to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 06:10

Alex Molcan

2:1

Federico Cina

Federico Cina to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 10:05

Mattia Bellucci

1:2

Yi Zhou

Mattia Bellucci to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:16

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·7 Oct, 07:00

Marco Trungelliti

0:2

Rei Sakamoto

Marco Trungelliti to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

odds 1.33Lost

WTA Challenger · Samsun, Turkiye·6 Oct, 09:15

Antonia Ruzic

1:2

Alicia Dudeney

Antonia Ruzic to win@1.33

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

odds 1.44Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 04:10

Aziz Dougaz

1:2

Federico Cina

Federico Cina to win@1.44

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

odds 1.60Void

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 06:35

Yoshihito Nishioka

void

Dalibor Svrcina

Dalibor Svrcina to win@1.60

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

odds 1.48Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·7 Oct, 05:10

Iva Jovic

0:2

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek to win@1.48

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

odds 1.31Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 04:30

Linda Noskova

0:2

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Linda Noskova to win@1.31

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

odds 1.69Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 07:10

Karolina Muchova

2:1

Naomi Osaka

Karolina Muchova to win@1.69

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

odds 1.40Lost

WTA Challenger · Samsun, Turkiye·6 Oct, 08:55

Emiliana Arango

0:2

Ayla Aksu

Emiliana Arango to win@1.40

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04

Void

ATP 500 · China Open·6 Oct, 11:15

Novak Djokovic

void

Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:36

odds 1.91Won

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Houston Texans

30:34

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys +3@1.91

Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:13

odds 1.65Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·4 Oct, 02:10

Jaume Munar

2:0

Kyrian Jacquet

Jaume Munar to win@1.65

Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:13

odds 1.34Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·4 Oct, 09:50

Jiri Lehecka

2:0

Adolfo Vallejo

Jiri Lehecka to win@1.34

Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:13

odds 1.35Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·4 Oct, 03:15

Sinja Kraus

2:0

Dayana Yastremska

Dayana Yastremska to win@1.35

Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:13

odds 1.56Lost

WTA Challenger · Jingshan, China·4 Oct, 06:00

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

0:2

Alexandra Shubladze

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro to win@1.56

Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:13

odds 1.44Lost

WTA · Adana, Turkiye·4 Oct, 15:05

Leolia Jeanjean

2:1

Lois Boisson

Lois Boisson to win@1.44

Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:13

odds 1.40Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·4 Oct, 05:00

Ekaterina Alexandrova

2:1

Diana Shnaider

Diana Shnaider to win@1.40

Singleposted 2 Oct, 23:02

odds 1.33Won

ATP 500 · China Open·3 Oct, 03:05

Alex de Minaur

2:1

Quentin Halys

Alex de Minaur to win@1.33

Showing the latest 500 of 851