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Natalie Rose Daily Tips

@wfAMWHoHxT9xsLp207 followersfirst pick 16 Oct

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NFL & NCAAFBasketball
Tipster index48.9needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 58.7%
Edge
−8.7 pp
over expectation
Graded
2
1-1
ROI
-
posts no odds
Average odds
-
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W1, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1016 Oct17 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF0-1 · 1 graded
−60.0
0%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+42.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-1 · 2 graded
−8.7
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-1 · 1 graded
−60.0
0%
Even1-0 · 1 graded
+42.7
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

  • October 2026
    −8.7 pp
    1-1 · 50%

By league

  • NBA1-0100%+42.7
  • NCAAF0-10%−60.0

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Picks

Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:17 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
53:25
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State Sun Devils +15.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:20 · 39 min before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Memphis Grizzlies
117:98
Charlotte Hornets
Memphis Grizzlies −4.5
Open on Xexpected 57% by model