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Analytical Edge

@wallybristles1.1K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 8 h before start

Win at your own risk.

BaseballHockeyBasketballNFL & NCAAFFootball
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Tipster index54.8#228 on the leaderboardup 18 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
51.9%
expected 49.1%
Edge
+2.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 45.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
184
94-87-3
ROI
−0.5%
on 182 picks with odds · max drawdown −19.62 u
Average odds
2.01
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W6, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10-5051 Aug23 Aug14 Sept6 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Baseball55-51-1 · 107 graded
+3.8
52%
Hockey19-8 · 27 graded
+16.8
70%
Basketball8-15 · 23 graded
−13.2
35%
NFL & NCAAF9-11-2 · 22 graded
−5.8
45%
Football3-2 · 5 graded
+14.0
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result37-39 · 76 graded
+0.2
49%
Totals35-31-1 · 67 graded
+3.7
53%
Handicap22-16-2 · 40 graded
+7.6
58%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−40.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite13-4 · 17 graded
+10.4
76%
Even77-68-3 · 148 graded
+3.9
53%
Underdog4-14 · 18 graded
−11.2
22%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.506-1 · 7 graded
+14.1%
86%
1.50…1.8932-21-1 · 54 graded
+1.4%
60%
1.90…2.2948-47-2 · 97 graded
+1.8%
51%
2.30…3.498-12 · 20 graded
−1.9%
40%
3.50+0-4 · 4 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −5.3 pp
    30-39 · 43%
    ROI −18.4%
  • September 2026
    +10.3 pp
    35-25-2 · 58%
    ROI +13.7%
  • October 2026
    +4.9 pp
    29-23-1 · 56%
    ROI +6.3%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 18:23 · 7 h before start
odds 2.88Won
NBA · Regular season·
Dallas Mavericks
120:96
Oklahoma City Thunder
Dallas Mavericks to win@2.88
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds+1.88 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 17:35 · 7 h before start
odds 2.38Won
MLS·
Austin FC
1:2
Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake to win@2.38
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds+1.38 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 15:02 · 9 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
111:97
Detroit Pistons
Over 218.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 15:04 · 10 h before start
odds 1.68Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
3:4
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Detroit Red Wings +1.5@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.68 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 15:03 · 9 h before start
odds 2.03Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.03
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.03 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 15:02 · 9 h before start
odds 1.59Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
5:2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Calgary Flames +1.5@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.59 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:04 · 5 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions −3.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:01 · 2 h before start
odds 1.53Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
25:28
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Illinois Fighting Illini
21:10
Oregon Ducks
Under 50@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:03 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
4:5
Anaheim Ducks
Under 6@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:03 · 8 h before start
odds 3.85Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
102:112
Toronto Raptors
Washington Wizards to win@3.85
Open on Xexpected 25% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:01 · 5 h before start
odds 1.96Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:03 · 9 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Winnipeg Jets
Under 5.5@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:02 · 10 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
2:1
Minnesota Wild
Calgary Flames +1.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:38 · 7 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Over 218.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:32 · 7 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Under 6.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:05 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Colorado Avalanche
Under 6.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:03 · 8 h before start
odds 1.59Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
2:6
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.59 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:02 · 8 h before start
odds 1.56Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
2:5
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings +1.5@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 15:03 · 9 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Under 51.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 15:01 · 8 h before start
odds 2.14Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche −1.5@2.14
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:04 · 2 h before start
odds 2.24Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win@2.24
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:01 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Under 44.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:03 · 56 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
James Madison Dukes
49:22
Georgia State Panthers
Under 58.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 17 Oct, 15:03 · 8 h before start
Lost
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Club Santos Laguna
5:0
Queretaro FC
Under 2.5✕
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Club Santos Laguna
5:0
Queretaro FC
Over 1✓
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:01 · 11 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
MLS·
Portland Timbers
0:0
Colorado Rapids
Portland Timbers to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 15:02 · 10 h before start
odds 1.52Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche to win@1.52
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds+0.52 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 15:03 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:1
New York Islanders
penalties
Under 5.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 15:02 · 2 h before start
odds 1.63Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Lech Poznan
0:4
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 15:03 · 8 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
2:3
Seattle Kraken
penalties
Seattle Kraken to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u