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R2D2 Picks

@R2D2portDecoder1.2K followersfirst pick 6 Augusually posts 10 h before start

Gematria, Numerology. Everything is about numbers. 142…123

BaseballFootball
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Tipster index47.1#288 on the leaderboarddown 40 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
Champions League · League Stage·
Viking
-:-
Bayern Munich
Viking to win
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 55.8%
Edge
−5.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 27.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
11
5-5-1 · 1 pending
ROI
-
on 3 picks with odds
Average odds
1.69
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.8-0.5-0.300.35 Aug22 Aug8 Sept25 Sept11 Oct

By sport

Baseball4-3 · 7 graded
+1.6
57%
Football1-2-1 · 4 graded
−23.2
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result4-5 · 9 graded
−7.0
44%
Handicap1-0-1 · 2 graded
+4.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded
−8.8
67%
Even3-3-1 · 7 graded
−0.4
50%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−29.7
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −9.2 pp
    2-3 · 40%
  • September 2026
    −2.4 pp
    3-2 · 60%
  • October 2026
    0.0 pp
    0-0-1 · -

By league

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R2D2 Picks (@R2D2portDecoder) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 18:53 · 7 min before start
Push
LaLiga·
Racing Santander
2:2
Valencia
Valencia draw no bet
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:47 · 2 days before start
Pending
Champions League · League Stage·
Viking
-:-
Bayern Munich
Viking to win
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 22 Sept, 20:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.39Lost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
1:3
Washington Nationals
Detroit Tigers to win@1.39
Open on Xexpected 69% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 01:06 · 22 h before start
odds 1.91Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
2:1
Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 01:52 · 15 h before start
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Barcelona
5:1
Feyenoord
Barcelona +3.5
Open on Xexpected 95% by model
Singleposted 8 Sept, 18:42 · 18 min before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Madrid
2:1
Inter
Inter to win
Open on Xexpected 45% by model
Singleposted 1 Sept, 16:57 · 6 h before start
odds 1.77Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
6:2
New York Mets
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 18 Aug, 23:02 · 37 min before start
Won
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
4:3
Athletics
Kansas City Royals to win
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 18 Aug, 03:31 · 20 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
9:4
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 17 Aug, 02:06 · 1 h before start
Lost
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Tijuana
2:1
Cruz Azul
Draw
Open on Xexpected 30% by model
Singleposted 15 Aug, 05:25 · 15 h before start
Lost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
7:1
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies to win
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 6 Aug, 01:23 · 17 h before start
Won
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
3:2
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs to win
Open on Xexpected 63% by model