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Dataman

@Dataman4226.1K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 2 h before start

🤖Data-driven originator with models for ⚾️MLB ,🏀CBB, 🏈NFL, CFB | 🚀DataFriends to the Moon | Host of the BEST ON X tournaments

BaseballNFL & NCAAF
Tipster index56.2#145 on the leaderboarddown 12 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
-:-
Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan Wolverines +7
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCF Knights
-:-
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights +6.5
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ball State Cardinals
-:-
Sacramento State Hornets
Ball State Cardinals −14.5@1.93DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio Bobcats
-:-
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Ohio Bobcats −12
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas State Red Wolves
-:-
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State Panthers −2.5
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma State Cowboys
-:-
Colorado Buffaloes
Oklahoma State Cowboys −13
Hit rate
55.7%
expected 51.7%
Edge
+4.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 47.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
107
59-47-1 · 8 pending
ROI
+6.9%
on 83 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.52 u
Average odds
1.94
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W6, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

024631 Jul20 Aug9 Sept29 Sept18 Oct

By sport

Baseball40-33 · 73 graded
+4.3
55%
NFL & NCAAF19-14-1 · 34 graded
+3.3
58%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap44-36-1 · 81 graded
+3.5
55%
Match result14-10 · 24 graded
+4.2
58%
Parlays1-1 · 2 graded
+20.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite20-15 · 35 graded
−6.1
57%
Even33-25-1 · 59 graded
+8.7
57%
Underdog5-6 · 11 graded
+8.2
45%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.507-0 · 7 graded
+45.7%
100%
1.50…1.8916-18 · 34 graded
−21.3%
47%
1.90…2.2917-9 · 26 graded
+33.6%
65%
2.30…3.497-9 · 16 graded
+6.3%
44%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +4.8 pp
    27-21 · 56%
    ROI +5.5%
  • September 2026
    +3.0 pp
    15-13 · 54%
    ROI +3.4%
  • October 2026
    +3.6 pp
    17-13-1 · 57%
    ROI +21.0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 4 days before start
Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
-:-
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
-:-
Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan Wolverines +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCF Knights
-:-
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 3 days before start
odds 1.93DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ball State Cardinals
-:-
Sacramento State Hornets
Ball State Cardinals −14.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio Bobcats
-:-
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Ohio Bobcats −12
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas State Red Wolves
-:-
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State Panthers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma State Cowboys
-:-
Colorado Buffaloes
Oklahoma State Cowboys −13
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:32 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona Wildcats
-:-
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State Cyclones +10
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:42 · 18 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:42 · 18 min before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
James Madison Dukes
49:22
Georgia State Panthers
James Madison Dukes −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan State Spartans
21:24
Northwestern Wildcats
Michigan State Spartans +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 3 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Temple Owls
31:38
Charlotte 49ers
Charlotte 49ers +19.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 6 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs −19.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 6 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Duke Blue Devils
20:24
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
43:35
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles +20.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 10 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
0:24
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +15.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 12 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sacramento State Hornets
7:48
Ohio Bobcats
Sacramento State Hornets +15.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:40 · 13 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
24:27
Utah Utes
Colorado Buffaloes +14.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:14 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −7
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 13:57 · 10 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Old Dominion Monarchs
15:23
Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia Southern Eagles −3.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 25 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UAB Blazers
30:17
East Carolina Pirates
East Carolina Pirates −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 3 days before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Army Black Knights
56:24
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic Owls +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Bowling Green Falcons
31:32
Ball State Cardinals
Ball State Cardinals +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas State Wildcats
35:24
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 3 days before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan State Spartans
21:24
Northwestern Wildcats
Michigan State Spartans +7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers +20.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 3 days before start
Push
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
34:24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Virginia Tech Hokies −10
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:28 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sacramento State Hornets
7:48
Ohio Bobcats
Sacramento State Hornets +14
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:32 · 1 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
19:38
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina Gamecocks +10.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u