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Dante Kenner

@therealtaek502728 followersfirst pick 17 Augusually posts 2 h before start
BaseballNFL & NCAAFFootballBasketball
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Tipster index63.8#44 on the leaderboardup 27 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
76.9%
expected 54.0%
Edge
+22.9 pp
hit rate at least 54.3% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
14
10-3-1
ROI
+106.9%
on 12 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
2.36
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W6, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1012316 Aug2 Sept18 Sept5 Oct21 Oct

By sport

Baseball5-1-1 · 7 graded
+34.3
83%
NFL & NCAAF3-1 · 4 graded
+23.3
75%
Football2-0 · 2 graded
+31.8
100%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−65.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result9-2 · 11 graded
+28.2
82%
Totals1-0-1 · 2 graded
+52.6
100%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−65.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-2-1 · 6 graded
−10.1
60%
Even6-1 · 7 graded
+37.0
86%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+89.4
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
1.50…1.893-0 · 3 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.294-1 · 5 graded
+64.2%
80%
3.50+1-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +51.9 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • September 2026
    +13.9 pp
    5-2-1 · 71%
    ROI +25.8%
  • October 2026
    +29.6 pp
    4-1 · 80%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:44 · 46 min before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn Nets +4.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:33 · 11 min before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Fenerbahçe
2:2
Slavia Prague
Over 3.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 17:35 · 2 h before start
odds 9.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 11% from the closing line+8.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:52 · 32 min before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line+0.40 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:51 · 14 min before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.58 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 20:37 · 2 h before start
odds 2.18Won
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
1:5
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals to win@2.18
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.18 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 20:17 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 20:17 · 2 h before start
Push
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 5
Open on Xexpected 85% by model
Singleposted 23 Sept, 20:11 · 2 h before start
odds 2.02Lost
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
4:2
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 13:09 · 9 h before start
odds 2.02Void
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
void
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds
Singleposted 9 Sept, 16:27 · 17 min before start
odds 1.07DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Barcelona
5:1
Feyenoord
Barcelona to win
Open on Xexpected 89% from the closing line+0.07 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 18:06 · 4 min before start
odds 1.99DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
4:5
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.99 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 18:04 · 5 min before start
odds 1.79DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
4:3
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.79 u
Singleposted 3 Sept, 22:26 · 2 h before start
odds 1.42DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
13:14
Colorado Buffaloes
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Aug, 17:44 · 5 h before start
odds 2.04DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
6:5
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+1.04 u