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ThatGirlMira

@ThatGirlMira552 followersfirst pick 17 Augusually posts 8 h before start

🎀 Sports Betting Princess💸 | Turning picks into profits 📈 | Parlays, vibes & bankroll growth💰✨

BaseballNFL & NCAAFTennisHockeyFootballBasketball
Tipster index63.0#53 on the leaderboarddown 12 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
66.4%
expected 59.5%
Edge
+6.9 pp
hit rate at least 63.0% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
547
363-184
ROI
+4.6%
on 358 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.73 u
Average odds
1.68
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W12, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-200204016 Aug1 Sept17 Sept2 Oct18 Oct

By sport

Baseball153-80 · 233 graded
+9.1
66%
NFL & NCAAF95-46 · 141 graded
+7.3
67%
Tennis61-24 · 85 graded
+8.2
72%
Hockey33-13 · 46 graded
+5.0
72%
Football16-12 · 28 graded
−2.7
57%
Basketball5-9 · 14 graded
−16.8
36%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result255-127 · 382 graded
+6.6
67%
Handicap102-43 · 145 graded
+7.8
70%
Parlays1-12 · 13 graded
+3.4
8%
Totals5-1 · 6 graded
+21.9
83%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−52.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite213-77 · 290 graded
+4.7
73%
Even145-88 · 233 graded
+9.9
62%
Underdog4-7 · 11 graded
+4.6
36%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5065-28 · 93 graded
−5.9%
70%
1.50…1.89131-69 · 200 graded
+8.8%
66%
1.90…2.2927-22 · 49 graded
+10.7%
55%
2.30…3.495-7 · 12 graded
+1.1%
42%
3.50+0-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +7.6 pp
    77-43 · 64%
    ROI +6.8%
  • September 2026
    +7.2 pp
    172-85 · 67%
    ROI +6.4%
  • October 2026
    +5.9 pp
    114-56 · 67%
    ROI +0.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:25 · 34 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 5 h before start
Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Orlando Magic
136:115
Miami Heat
Miami Heat +5.5
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 5 h before start
odds 1.33DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Indiana Pacers
127:128
Milwaukee Bucks
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 5 h before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Philadelphia 76ers
120:125
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Open on Xexpected 78% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 5 h before start
odds 1.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Pre-season·
Detroit Pistons
129:125
Toronto Raptors
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 80% from the closing line+0.20 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 6 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Dallas Mavericks
111:135
Atlanta Hawks
Dallas Mavericks to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 6 h before start
odds 2.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Chicago Bulls
133:116
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 33% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 6 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Memphis Grizzlies
117:98
Charlotte Hornets
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 6 h before start
odds 1.16DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Pre-season·
San Antonio Spurs
126:97
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs to win
Open on Xexpected 82% from the closing line+0.16 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 6 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
New Orleans Pelicans
107:106
Washington Wizards
New Orleans Pelicans +4.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 8 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Golden State Warriors
128:118
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 8 h before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Phoenix Suns
116:119
Utah Jazz
Phoenix Suns to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:41 · 9 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
LA Lakers
106:121
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets +7.5
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 22:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.72DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.72 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 8 h before start
odds 1.46DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
LASK
3:6
Liverpool
Liverpool to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.46 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 10 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
3:4
Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 10 h before start
odds 1.62DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Aston Villa
6:0
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.62 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 10 h before start
odds 2.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Bodoe/Glimt
1:0
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund to win
Open on Xexpected 38% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 10 h before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Shakhtar Donetsk
3:1
AEK Athens
AEK Athens +1.5
Open on Xexpected 82% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 10 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
2:4
Paris Saint-Germain
Manchester City to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 10 h before start
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Betis
3:2
FC Porto
Real Betis +1.5
Open on Xexpected 81% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 09:15 · 10 h before start
odds 1.39DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Slovan Bratislava
0:3
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line+0.39 u
Parlay · 9posted 14 Oct, 07:39 · 9 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State Owls to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sam Houston State Bearkats to win✕
Champions League · League Stage·
LASK
3:6
Liverpool
Liverpool to win✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Aston Villa
6:0
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa to win✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
2:4
Paris Saint-Germain
Manchester City to win✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Slovan Bratislava
0:3
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win✕
Open on Xexpected 1% by model
Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:02 · 28 h before start
odds 1.69Won
ATP Challenger · Jinan, China·
Martin Landaluce
2:0
Ilia Simakin
Martin Landaluce to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:02 · 7 h before start
odds 1.62Void
ATP Challenger · Jinan, China·
Stefanos Sakellaridis
void
Juncheng Shang
Stefanos Sakellaridis to win@1.62
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds
Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:01 · 3 h before start
odds 1.53Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Learner Tien
0:2
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:01 · 5 h before start
odds 1.40Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Jasmine Paolini
2:0
Sara Bejlek
Jasmine Paolini to win@1.40
Open on Xexpected 68% from odds+0.40 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:01 · 4 h before start
odds 1.71Void
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Clara Tauson
void
Marie Bouzkova
Clara Tauson to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds
Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:01 · 3 h before start
odds 1.30Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Pablo Carreno Busta
1:2
Felix Auger Aliassime
Felix Auger Aliassime to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds+0.30 u

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