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The Sharp Bureau

@SharpBureau50 followersfirst pick 29 Septusually posts 3 h before start

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NFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballBaseball
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Tipster index49.5#402 on the leaderboardup 25 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 50.5%
Edge
−0.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 35.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
28
14-14
ROI
−7.3%
on 24 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.75 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W3, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1.5-1-0.500.529 Sept5 Oct12 Oct19 Oct25 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF8-8 · 16 graded
−0.4
50%
Hockey3-4 · 7 graded
−6.4
43%
Basketball2-1 · 3 graded
+13.5
67%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
−1.2
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result6-5 · 11 graded
+2.8
55%
Totals3-5 · 8 graded
−13.3
38%
Handicap5-2 · 7 graded
+16.6
71%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−26.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded
+1.6
67%
Even12-11 · 23 graded
+1.5
52%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.899-6 · 15 graded
+6.7%
60%
1.90…2.293-5 · 8 graded
−22.0%
38%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +45.3 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    −2.2 pp
    13-14 · 48%
    ROI −10.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:46 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
21:35
Los Angeles Rams
Over 48.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:07 · 8 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:1
Anaheim Ducks
Over 6.5@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:07 · 11 h before start
odds 2.25Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:3
Utah Mammoth
Over 6.5@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.25 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:04 · 9 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Under 50.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:18 · 41 min before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.05 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:18 · 5 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:18 · 7 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:00 · 1 h before start
odds 2.35Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers to win@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:05 · 5 h before start
odds 1.94Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
2:4
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 14 Oct, 20:58 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State Owls to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Over 52.5✕
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 14 Oct, 20:58 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sam Houston State Bearkats to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Over 53.5✕
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 20:58 · 3 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:22 · 7 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sam Houston State Bearkats +1.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 20:44 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
2:5
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 21:54 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:02 · 5 h before start
odds 1.86Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Troy State Trojans
55:34
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Under 51.5@1.86
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 20:08 · 16 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 20:08 · 16 min before start
odds 1.78Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Over 41.5@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 14:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.72Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Under 50.5@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 14:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
20:24
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles +3.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 14:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.76Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +7.5@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 18:44 · 46 min before start
odds 1.70Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia State Panthers
42:10
Old Dominion Monarchs
Georgia State Panthers to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.70 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 18:44 · 46 min before start
odds 1.71Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Missouri Tigers +7.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 21:23 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern Wildcats +3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 18:12 · 5 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
6:3
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 18:12 · 5 h before start
odds 1.68Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
5:1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 18:02 · 6 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:2
Boston Red Sox
Under 6.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 16:51 · 7 h before start
odds 1.74Won
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:0
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u