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RiggedGems

@RiggedGems19.9K followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 3 h before start

RiggedGems 💎 | Reading the script, not the hype. For Business Inquires: Riggedgems@gmail.com

NFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
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Tipster index46.4#544 on the leaderboarddown 125 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
-:-
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers +4@1.87
Hit rate
42.9%
expected 48.6%
Edge
−5.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 24.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
14
6-8 · 1 pending
ROI
+3.3%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.00 u
Average odds
2.00
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1-0.500.52 Aug24 Aug15 Sept6 Oct28 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-4 · 7 graded
−8.0
43%
Baseball3-3 · 6 graded
+5.0
50%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−54.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-6 · 7 graded
−32.7
14%
Match result3-1 · 4 graded
+25.0
75%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+16.2
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+36.1
100%
Even3-7 · 10 graded
−18.0
30%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+13.9
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.892-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
1.90…2.291-2 · 3 graded
-
33%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −4.7 pp
    2-3 · 40%
    ROI −15.0%
  • September 2026
    +1.5 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • October 2026
    −8.5 pp
    3-4 · 43%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:00 · 19 h before start
odds 1.87Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
-:-
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers +4@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds
Singleposted 27 Oct, 20:08 · 7 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
129:136
Portland Trail Blazers
LA Lakers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 17:50 · 3 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
21:35
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 13:44 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans −2.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 21:51 · 2 h before start
odds 2.05Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Under 6.5@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 00:04 · 15 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −4.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 17:34 · 3 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 19:10 · 5 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions −7
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 20:09 · 16 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
37:20
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys −3.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 3 Sept, 20:24 · 4 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
13:14
Colorado Buffaloes
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Aug, 19:36 · 34 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Atlanta Braves
Over 5.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Aug, 20:48 · 2 h before start
odds 2.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
6:4
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins to win
Open on Xexpected 33% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Aug, 17:33 · 7 min before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
7:5
Baltimore Orioles
Over 8.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 5 Aug, 21:02 · 2 h before start
odds 2.45Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
4:1
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves to win@2.45
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds+1.45 u
Singleposted 3 Aug, 16:22 · 7 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
MLB·
New York Yankees
7:13
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees −1.5@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u