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MenacePicks

@menace_picks127 followersfirst pick 27 Septusually posts 34 min before start

September: +11.9u | +4.51% ROI 2026 Overall: +10.3u | +2.05% ROI

NFL & NCAAFHockey
CompareRSS
Tipster index62.0#69 on the leaderboardup 26 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
71.4%
expected 52.6%
Edge
+18.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 49.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
15
10-4-1
ROI
+17.6%
on 13 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.77
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W3, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

01226 Sept4 Oct11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF9-3-1 · 13 graded
+22.3
75%
Hockey1-1 · 2 graded
−1.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap5-1-1 · 7 graded
+24.6
83%
Match result4-2 · 6 graded
+14.0
67%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−52.0
0%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+84.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-0 · 3 graded
+35.8
100%
Even6-4-1 · 11 graded
+7.2
60%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.896-3-1 · 10 graded
+8.9%
67%
1.90…2.291-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +47.0 pp
    2-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +14.2 pp
    8-4-1 · 67%
    ROI +5.6%

By league

  • NFL9-2-182%+28.7
  • NHL1-150%−1.8
  • NCAAF0-10%−47.6

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 23:46 · 34 min before start
odds 1.71Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 12:45 · 44 min before start
odds 1.68Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
10:16
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.68 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:43 · 17 min before start
odds 2.00Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
TCU Horned Frogs
20:24
West Virginia Mountaineers
TCU Horned Frogs −10.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:00 · 14 min before start
odds 1.61Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +6@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:09 · 2 h before start
odds 1.53Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers −3.5@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:43 · 32 min before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 04:10 · 3 days before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line+1.30 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 23:30 · 44 min before start
odds 1.63Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +6.5@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 00:12 · 2 min before start
odds 1.77Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 16:43 · 16 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +10.5@1.56✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
New England Patriots to win✓
Open on Xexpected 16% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 12:56 · 34 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts under 26.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 18:49 · 7 h before start
odds 1.65Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
3:4
Anaheim Ducks
Vegas Golden Knights to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 02:59 · 18 h before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
0:1
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line+1.10 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 02:59 · 3 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:40 · 20 min before start
odds 1.58Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
30:27
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.58 u