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FQMedia

@fqmedia_1.4K followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 10 h before start

Matthew | 4th Quarter Media 93-67-2 +31.8u YTD Host of @thedeciderpod

NFL & NCAAFTennisBaseballBasketball
Tipster index61.7#72 on the leaderboarddown 8 this weekestablished sample

Deleted picks

After posting, the author deleted 4 picks from X: 2 lost, 2 won.

Deleted picks stay in the stats: the index and hit rate include them. How we check

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
-:-
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers +3@1.89
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
-:-
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels under 24.5@1.87
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
-:-
New York Giants
Houston Texans under 24.5@1.91
Hit rate
57.9%
expected 50.6%
Edge
+7.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 50.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
122
70-51-1 · 3 pending
ROI
+8.0%
on 120 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.80 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W4, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

02.557.52 Aug23 Aug12 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF40-29-1 · 70 graded
+7.5
58%
Tennis27-20 · 47 graded
+7.0
57%
Baseball3-1 · 4 graded
+21.4
75%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−47.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap31-29-1 · 61 graded
+0.9
52%
Match result29-12 · 41 graded
+19.1
71%
Totals9-6 · 15 graded
+13.3
60%
Team totals1-3 · 4 graded
−26.4
25%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−43.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+34.4
100%
Even69-48-1 · 118 graded
+7.9
59%
Underdog0-2 · 2 graded
−16.0
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8936-22-1 · 59 graded
+11.2%
62%
1.90…2.2933-26 · 59 graded
+8.4%
56%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +9.4 pp
    16-11 · 59%
    ROI +9.5%
  • September 2026
    +4.3 pp
    32-26-1 · 55%
    ROI +2.7%
  • October 2026
    +10.5 pp
    22-14 · 61%
    ROI +15.7%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:14 · 28 h before start
odds 1.89Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
-:-
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers +3@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:14 · 28 h before start
odds 1.87Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
-:-
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels under 24.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:14 · 46 h before start
odds 1.91Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
-:-
New York Giants
Houston Texans under 24.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:27 · 3 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 01:46 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
James Duckworth
2:0
Luciano Darderi
Luciano Darderi to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Under 52.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 01:39 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Talia Gibson
2:0
Harriet Dart
Talia Gibson to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 01:39 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Elise Mertens
1:2
Leylah Fernandez
Elise Mertens to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 06:54 · 10 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New York Jets +7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 06:54 · 14 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +6@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 06:02 · 11 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 03:44 · 12 h before start
odds 1.69Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 03:44 · 20 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky Wildcats under 17.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:17 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:31 · 27 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:50 · 6 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 19:46 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +3.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 19:46 · 1 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 07:49 · 9 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans −7@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 07:49 · 12 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 07:49 · 17 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +3@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:27 · 3 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Bulldogs to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.05 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 08:20 · 15 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Bulldogs +2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 08:20 · 15 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 08:20 · 11 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Under 39.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 08:20 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nebraska Cornhuskers
17:20
Indiana Hoosiers
Under 48.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 08:20 · 12 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas Razorbacks
17:24
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 21:05 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
83:81
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 16:55 · 5 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:39 · 36 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u