WAGER

@favourxr111 followersfirst pick 22 Oct

FootballBasketball

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Tipster index47.8needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

25.0%

expected 34.5%

Edge

−9.5 pp

over expectation

Graded

1-3

ROI

on 4 picks with odds

Average odds

3.31

singles with odds

Form

streak L3 · best W1, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Football1-2 · 3 graded

−1.4

33%

Basketball0-1 · 1 graded

−34.0

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-2 · 3 graded

−4.5

33%

Match result0-1 · 1 graded

−24.7

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded

+39.7

100%

Underdog0-3 · 3 graded

−25.9

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded

100%

2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded

3.50+0-2 · 2 graded

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).