DropShotPoints

@dropshotpoints7.1K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 4 h before start

Expert on DFS Tennis 🎾 - 2025 +109.2U, 2026 +153.7U-💰Football Guru🏈 Get all my person plays in my Winible premium💎 OverOwned Partner | Code Dropshotpoints

TennisNFL & NCAAF

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Tipster index49.3#440 on the leaderboarddeveloping sample

Hit rate

57.9%

expected 58.8%

Edge

−0.9 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.5%, the edge is within noise

Graded

11-8

ROI

+1.8%

on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.33 u

Average odds

1.77

singles with odds

Form

streak L1 · best W5, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis10-6 · 16 graded

+3.3

63%

NFL & NCAAF1-2 · 3 graded

−23.3

33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result5-4 · 9 graded

−0.2

56%

Totals5-1 · 6 graded

+5.2

83%

Parlays1-3 · 4 graded

−11.5

25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-1 · 7 graded

+4.2

86%

Even3-4 · 7 graded

−9.4

43%

Underdog1-0 · 1 graded

+66.0

100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-3 · 5 graded

−35.0%

40%

1.90…2.292-0 · 2 graded

100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
−0.7 pp
6-3 · 67%
September 2026
−1.0 pp
0-1 · 0%
October 2026
−1.0 pp
5-4 · 56%
ROI −22.3%

By league

NFL1-233%−23.3
ATP 5003-0100%+40.1
ATP 2501-233%−35.1
ATP Challenger1-150%−8.3
ATP 10002-0100%+21.3
WTA 10002-0100%+29.3
US Open0-0--

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 19:40 · 5 h before start

odds 1.69Lost

ATP Challenger · Sioux Falls, USA·29 Oct, 00:20

Jenson Brooksby

0:2

Dylan Dietrich

Jenson Brooksby to win@1.69

Parlay · 2posted 27 Oct, 23:59 · 13 h before start

odds 1.81Won

ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·28 Oct, 12:45

Daniel Merida Aguilar

0:2

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win✓

ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·28 Oct, 15:20

Novak Djokovic

2:1

Ugo Humbert

Novak Djokovic to win✓

Singleposted 27 Oct, 20:12 · 17 min before start

odds 1.96Won

ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·27 Oct, 20:30

Flavio Cobolli

2:1

Grigor Dimitrov

Flavio Cobolli to win@1.96

Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:45 · 14 h before start

Won

ATP 250 · Almaty Open·23 Oct, 06:40

Nikoloz Basilashvili

2:0

Adrian Mannarino

Over 12.5 games

Parlay · 2posted 11 Oct, 01:20 · 3 h before start

odds 1.71Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 04:10

Ben Shelton

0:2

Arthur Gea

Ben Shelton to win✕

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 04:10

Karen Khachanov

2:0

Adrian Mannarino

Karen Khachanov to win✓

Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:44 · 15 min before start

odds 1.67Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Houston Texans

30:34

Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans to win@1.67

Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:44 · 15 min before start

odds 1.67Won

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14:17

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers to win@1.67

Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:44 · 15 min before start

odds 1.71Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Cincinnati Bengals

17:22

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.71

Singleposted 2 Oct, 01:36 · 34 min before start

Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·2 Oct, 02:10

Jaume Munar

2:0

Jaime Faria

Under 19 games

Parlay · 4posted 24 Sept, 23:47 · 5 h before start

Lost

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 05:15

Jenson Brooksby

2:1

Lorenzo Sonego

Under 14 games✕

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 05:15

Jenson Brooksby

2:1

Lorenzo Sonego

Over 2 sets✓

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 05:15

Jenson Brooksby

2:1

Lorenzo Sonego

Lorenzo Sonego +1.5 sets✓

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 06:35

Alejandro Tabilo

0:2

Adrian Mannarino

Alejandro Tabilo +1.5 sets✕

Singleposted 25 Aug, 19:43 · 52 min before start

Lost

ATP 250 · Winston-Salem Open·25 Aug, 20:35

Raphael Collignon

1:2

Rinky Hijikata

Raphael Collignon to win

Singleposted 25 Aug, 10:08 · 14 h before start

Lost

ATP 250 · Winston-Salem Open·26 Aug, 00:20

Miomir Kecmanovic

0:2

Fabian Marozsan

Over 22.5 games

Singleposted 25 Aug, 09:25 · 7 h before start

Void

US Open · Women's Qualification·25 Aug, 16:35

Sara Sorribes Tormo

void

Noma Noha Akugue

Over 13.5 games

Singleposted 13 Aug, 05:51 · 9 h before start

Won

WTA 1000 · Cincinnati·13 Aug, 15:10

Taylor Townsend

2:1

Maria Osorio

Over 14.5 games

Singleposted 12 Aug, 22:20 · 2 h before start

Won

ATP 1000 · Canadian Open·13 Aug, 00:40

Learner Tien

0:2

Ben Shelton

Over 12.5 games

Singleposted 12 Aug, 22:20 · 5 h before start

odds 2.14Won

WTA 1000 · Canadian Open·13 Aug, 02:55

Coco Gauff

1:2

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina to win@2.14

Singleposted 12 Aug, 22:13 · 2 h before start

Won

ATP 1000 · Canadian Open·13 Aug, 00:40

Learner Tien

0:2

Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton to win

Singleposted 11 Aug, 08:23 · 3 h before start

odds 1.58Won

ATP Challenger · Hamburg, Germany·11 Aug, 11:50

Olle Wallin

1:2

Carlos Taberner

Carlos Taberner to win@1.58

Parlay · 2posted 7 Aug, 19:20 · 4 h before start

Lost

WTA 1000 · Canadian Open·7 Aug, 23:10

Maria Sakkari

0:2

Coco Gauff

Maria Sakkari +6.5✕

ATP 1000 · Canadian Open·8 Aug, 01:30

Learner Tien

2:0

Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul +1.5 sets✕

Singleposted 1 Aug, 08:40 · 14 h before start

Won

ATP 500 · Mubadala DC Open·1 Aug, 22:40

Brandon Nakashima

1:2

Taylor Fritz

Over 12.5 games